Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns Week 3 Pick & Analysis
Tennessee Titans (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (1-1, 1-1), 9/24/23
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 24
Where: Browns Stadium
Point spread: Tenn +3/Cle -3
Money line: Tenn +135/Cle -160
The Browns begin their mush on without running back Nick Chubb when they host the Titans Sunday afternoon at the place they’re now back to calling Cleveland Browns Stadium.
The Brownies figured to contend for at least a playoff spot this season, and maybe more. Now, they’ll have to do it without their top offensive weapon.
Cleveland’s only favored by a home-field field goal for Sunday. How are we playing this game with our free NFL betting pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 3 NFL betting market opened Cleveland as a 3.5-point home favorite over Tennessee, with an over/under of right around 40. Early betting action then knocked the hook off that spread.
Titans Betting Preview
Tennessee just bounced back from a tough season-opening loss by beating the Chargers at home in overtime last Sunday 27-24. The Titans spotted Los Angeles the first 11 points of the game but pulled to within 14-10 at the half. Tennessee then led 17-14, trailed 21-17, and then led 24-21 before allowing the Chargers to force OT with a field goal at the regulation buzzer. The Titans then won the game with a defensive stop and a 37-yard drive to a field goal.
Tennessee out-rushed Los Angeles 141-61, won the time of possession 37:26 and committed zero turnovers.
The Titans opened their season with a 16-15 loss at New Orleans. Tennessee out-rushed the Saints that day 104-69 but turned the ball over three times.
Last year, the Titans started 7-3, then lost their last seven games, four by five points or less and three without starting QB Tannehill. This year Tennessee, perhaps a bit under the radar, is playing against a wins over/under of 7.5.
Browns Betting Preview
Cleveland, on the other hand, suffered a letdown last week, losing at Pittsburgh Monday night 26-22. The Browns fell behind 7-0 on a turnover touchdown on the first play of the game, bounced back to lead 11-7 but trailed 16-14 at the half. Cleveland later led 22-19 midway through the fourth quarter but gave up another turnover TD to fall behind and could not respond.
The Browns out-gained the Steelers 408-255, out-rushed Pittsburgh 198-55, and won the time of possession 35:25. But they also turned the ball over four times, resulting directly in two Steelers touchdowns, gave up a 71-yard catch-and-run score and missed a make-able field goal.
In other words, Cleveland out-played Pittsburgh, except for three big plays.
The big news for the Browns coming out of Monday night wasn’t even really the loss itself; it was the terrible knee injury suffered by RB Chubb that will keep him out for the rest of this season. However, back-up Jerome Ford stepped in and produced 131 yards from scrimmage on 19 touches Monday, and he’ll get the start this Sunday.
Cleveland opened its season with a dominant 24-3 victory over Cincinnati.
The Browns played a disappointing 7-10 last season but finished 3-3 with Watson at QB. This year, Cleveland’s playing against a wins O/U of 9.5.
Titans-Browns Recent History
These teams last met three seasons ago, a 41-35 Cleveland win in Nashville. Baker Mayfield quarterbacked the Browns that day against Tannehill for Tennessee.
NFL Betting Trends
- NFL home teams are just 13-19 SU, 11-19-2 ATS so far this season.
- NFL favorites are 18-14 SU but 11-19-2 ATS so far this season.
The totals are split 1-1 in Titans games this season, which are averaging 40 total points (without OT).
The totals are split 1-1 in Browns games, which are averaging 38 points.
The Unders went 12-4 in Week 1 of this NFL season, but the overs played 13-3 in Week 2.
Free NFL Betting Pick
Tennessee lost its season opener, then beat the Chargers. Cleveland won its season opener, then lost to Pittsburgh. So, our bounce back/letdown indicator points toward the Browns. Also, that Cleveland defense looks good, and while we love Chubb, the young Ford might be a capable replacement. We’re betting on the Browns Sunday.