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Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills Pick

by | Oct 3, 2018 | nfl

Tennessee Titans (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
NFL Week 5
Date/Time: Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: New Era Field at Ralph Wilson Stadium – Buffalo, New York
TV: CBS
By: Keith Franks, NFL Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: Tennessee -3.5 / Buffalo +3.5
Over/Under Total: 39

The Buffalo Bills and the Tennessee Titans will square off in an intra-conference collision when the AFC South meets the East at New Era Field in the home of the legendary chicken wings, Buffalo, New York. The game will begin at 1:00 PM ET and will be aired for regional audiences on CBS. Most recently in 2015, the Bills ended a five-game Tennessee winning streak when they defeated the Titans in Music City in 14-13 thriller.

The Titans Pull Off A Titanic Win

The Titans come into this fixture off the heels of another impressive win to add to their dossier. The Titans improved to 3-1 on the season after they defeated the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Philadelphia Eagles in the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday by a score of 26-23. Overtime was required to declare the winner but fortunately for Tennessee they were on the positive end of that scenario. In the week previous to this, the Titans pulled off an outright upset of the defending AFC South Champions, the Jacksonville Jaguars as a double-digit dog, winning 9-6 in a true gritty defensive battle. Very quietly, the Titans have won three in a row after falling to the Miami Dolphins to open up their 2018 campaign in a pick-em scenario.

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The Bills Are Back To Being The Bills…Or So It Seems

Two weeks ago Buffalo orchestrated what was considered one of the greatest upsets in decades when they marched into the Twin Cities and handed the Minnesota Vikings (a team favored for the Super Bowl) a 27-6 loss, despite closing as 16.5-point pup on the road. Many superlatives were used to describe this outfit in the build-up to this game and none of them where good. Some called the Bills a dumpster fire, others proclaimed them the new Cleveland Browns, many have said they are just outright awful. Quarterback Josh Allen and running back LeSean “Shady” McCoy had other ideas. In their follow-up to this enormous triumph, Buffalo was once again on the road in Green Bay opening as a double-digit underdog to the Packers. As a result of an overreaction, that line quickly fell to 8 at some books and Packers takers cashed in when Green Bay shutout Buffalo 22-0 at Lambeau Field. With such a loss on the books yet again for Buff city, the stock in this outfit has once again crashed through the floor as the Vikings upset seems more and more like a fluke.

Take Buffalo +150 (Money Line – Odds may vary from book to book)

In this market, we saw the Titans positioned as a field-goal plus favorite. This number resonates with us because given the quality of Tennessee’s win combined with Buffalo’s abysmal defeat, one would expect the Bills to take back quite a bit more lumber here. As a result, the consensus seemed to have hopped all over the Titans as quite frankly they look too easy here. Generally speaking, this raises many red flags that perhaps an upset could be brewing here.

We’ll trade away the points here and enhance our return by 60% and take the Bills on the Money Line here. Tennessee enters into this contest in a huge let-down spot. After winning two hard-fought games in back-to-back weeks against elite teams, the Titans could come in flat here against one of the weaker ensembles across the league. However, if Buffalo has proven anything so far this year it is that it is not afraid of anyone or anything.

We’ll chalk Buffalo’s loss last week up to Josh Allen making rookie mistakes and throwing two interceptions one of the game’s all-time greats in quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Allen was out-dueled and Buffalo had its hands full in a notoriously hostile environment. Now, they get this one at home with all the cooking behind them looking to make a statement here in front of their faithful. After all, lest we forget that if Buffalo wins here they are 2-3, just one game shy of .500. For a team that appeared dead in the water after the second week of action, Buffalo can find itself competing for the AFC East with a win here on Sunday. Look for an improved performance and for the Bills to cash in.

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