Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pick ATS
Week 5 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, October 10, 2021 at 1PM EDT
Where: TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida
Point Spread: TEN -4.5/JAC +4.5 (Betanysports - Start saving a ton of your hard earned money TODAY by making the switch to -105 betting odds! It’s the smart thing to do!)
Over/Under Total: 48.5
The Tennessee Titans come to TIAA Bank Stadium to battle the Jacksonville Jaguars in AFC South action in week five. Neither team had a great time of it last week. The Jags are coming off the long week, following a tough 24-21 loss to the Bengals. Up 14-0, they couldn’t hold onto the lead, falling to a FG with time running out for their fourth straight loss to open the season. They now host a Tennessee team that bottomed out last week in a 27-24 loss to the Jets to fall to 2-2. Both teams could really use a win, so who will emerge with the cover in this divisional battle on Sunday?
Tennessee: Time to Worry?
It might be premature to panic, but some things stand out as major hurdles to a big season for the Titans this season. First is inconsistency. At their best, they are a real threat to beat any team in the league. But last week’s loss to the Jets showed the flip side of that coin—a team capable of hitting low depths without warning on a given week. The losses of AJ Brown and Julio Jones leading up to last week obviously hurt, as Tennessee was basically left with Derrick Henry to do all the damage. Ryan Tannehill did a good job with the best of the rest on his receiving crew, but they were terrible on third down and could never achieve any continuity on offense.
The Titans are facing a real crisis defensively that needs to be addressed in a meaningful way before this season gets away from them. In three out of four games this season, they haven’t been good by any measure. Their lack of defensive stoutness in the past was made up for with a major playmaking potential. They have gamers on this side of the ball, but the difference-making plays have been coming with less and less regularity lately. Offenses are having their way. Big stretches of the game sail by without the pass-rush making a dent. And a ball-hawk secondary has only been making a minimal impact through the first quarter of the season.
If we assume either Jones or Brown, or perhaps both, will return this week, we can start making the case for an upturn. Tennessee has a manageable spot here against the winless Jags. They need a win to avoid falling to 2-3. They just lost to the Jets, which sets up for a get-better week where they have more urgency than they’d otherwise have against a winless opponent. Tennessee fancies themselves a contender and that’s a hard claim to make when you dump games to the Jets and Jags in consecutive weeks. That would be a hard pill to swallow and I look for coach Vrabel and the Titans’ veterans to put a lot into preventing that from occurring.
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Don’t Sleep on the Jaguars
It’s a work in progress—make no mistake. But one should hesitate in writing them off in any kind of way week-to-week. It’s a matter of when and not if that Trevor Lawrence shows the chops that made him the top QB college prospect of the last decade. We saw some of it last Thursday, before a bad second half took a victory off the table. Granted, there are issues surrounding Lawrence such as that line. And the defense that supports him is pretty porous, especially against the pass. But some things are in place, like a good RB in James Robinson. With Lawrence adding spice with his legs too, this run-game can do damage. He has reliable targets like Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault, Jr., though losing DJ Chark to injury hurts. Getting a nice tight end before last week with Dan Arnold was a good move. The bottom-line is that this is an offense with some upside, led by a QB who could be due to really show something here.
It’s subtle and they haven’t won a game yet, but the Jaguars are getting better. Coming off the long week, they might have an energy edge over a Titans team that battled deep into overtime last Sunday in a draining encounter with the Jets. Henry has 95 carries in the last three weeks. They now turn to face a rested younger Jags team, a team with energy trying to make it happen. But after getting stomped by the Texans of all teams and beaten conclusively by the Broncos, they gave the Cardinals a little sweat, leading until a bad second half, a performance where they followed suit the next week against Cincy on Thursday Night Football. So we don’t see a winless team that is just floundering constantly. We see a team showing good signs, without having put it all together yet.
Take the Points
These divisional games can sometimes be bigger struggles than what it looks like on paper. This seems like a great bounce-back candidate for the Titans, facing a familiar foe who is winless. It’s just that with the state of Tennessee’s defense, combined with their injury-battered aerial game, I’m not sure I want to ride Henry so hard this week after so much recent work. They’re going to need him and I’m sure he’ll make an impact. I just think they’re compromised enough to give the Jags an angle here to make a run at a possible win, while covering the spread at home. I’ll take the Jaguars in this one.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars plus 4.5 points. Bet your week 5 NFL picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!