Thursday Night Football Picks: Giants vs. 49ers
New York Giants (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Week 3 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, September 21, 2023 at 8:15 PM EDT
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
TV: Prime Video
Point Spread: NYG +10.5/SF -10.5 (Bet NFL games at -105 instead of -110 at Betanysports! It’ll save you a ton of money each month!)
Money Line: New York +375, San Francisco -525
Over/Under Total: 45
The New York Giants come to the Bay Area for a week 3 Thursday Night Football showdown with the San Francisco 49ers. So far, everything seems in order for the Niners. Their 30-23 win over the Rams was perhaps more competitive than some might have predicted, but for the Niners, entering week three relatively healthy and winning has to be considered a successful start to the year. Things were looking dire for the Giants in week two. Recipients of a 40-0 beating to Dallas in week one, they were seeing it play out against Arizona again, down 20-0 at halftime. Without having scored a single point all season, the Giants and Daniel Jones roared back. With some big runs and throws from Jones and two TDs from Saquon Barkley, the Giants added two TDs each in the third and fourth quarters, adding a late FG to beat Arizona 31-28. Can they come back on the short week on the road and provide some resistance to the Niners in this NFC battle?
Trouble for the Giants
Toward the end of their giant comeback effort against the Cardinals, we saw Saquon Barkley go down with an ankle injury. They also face the prospects of playing on the road for the second time in a row, on the short week, to boot. A lot was put into that comeback win last week. You take the deflating beating from week one, the huge comeback win, and now the Barkley injury. The Giants have been through some stuff already for a team that hasn’t even played its third game yet. It’s been a little bit of a roller-coaster, and while last week could be one of those wins that galvanizes a team, the Barkley thing really puts a cloud around it.
It makes you wonder about what kind of team we’re going to see come into Levi’s Stadium on the long road trip off the short week. They obviously have their hands full just from a strictly-football viewpoint. But add in the elements of fatigue and injury to the equation, and you see things already starting to chip away at a Giants’ cause that can ill-afford any more damning info. It could be argued that Barkley is more important to a team like the Giants that really has few stars on offense. We saw what QB Daniel Jones can do when he’s rolling, and it was good to see newly added tight end Darren Waller surface on Sunday. But with backup running back Matt Breida picking up the slack and a collection of inconsistent receivers all playing small roles, you wonder what they’re going to deliver in this spot.
Edges for the Niners
With the Giants and that offensive line, there are going to be spots where they really fall flat, as we’ve already seen. Now, without Barkley, their entire balance is thrown off, and teams with a good defensive front like the Niners have can really zero in. Against the Cardinals on Sunday, they were able to mask it to a degree, at least in the second half. But they couldn’t camouflage their shakiness up front against Dallas, and that was with Barkley. This could be a spot where the Giants aren’t put in the best position to really shine. The 49ers already have four picks on defense, and this is a spot where we should see that pass-rush get cranked up, now with Nick Bosa having another week under his belt.
It’s been a little dicey already for the Giants’ defense against the run, allowing two TDs to Tony Pollard before the 106-yard/one-touchdown game from James Conner last week. We’ve seen heavy usage from the Niners with Christian McCaffrey, who has put together two 100-yard games already and looks to be in peak form. If he gets rolling, it will also open up things for Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk, with the rising Brock Purdy running the show. The Giants can be tough against the pass, but taking on the 49ers, with all the different areas they can cover aerially, they will really be put to the test.
It’s really an issue of weaponry. On defense, the Niners have difference-makers like Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, and a slew of other proven contributors. They’re being disruptive and getting turnovers. The Giants’ defense has played one good half, and while it was key in helping stage New York’s comeback win last week, this might not be a bankable spot for this unit. Then you take an SF offense that has a rising commodity in Brock Purdy, the versatile Samuel, and McCaffrey, along with Kittle and Aiyuk, and pit it against the Giants, who are down to whatever Jones can come up with, along with Waller and whatever receiver may step up here and there. It’s just not a clear road to success on the short week, on the road, and against a good defense.
Lay the Number on the Home Favorite
Sometimes, when it looks too easy, the alarm bells should start ringing. The same wherewithal and heart the Giants called upon to climb out of the hole against the Cardinals on Sunday could resonate here as they now need to come up with some real answers to stay upright. It’s just that Jones might not be enough, underrated as he might be. Being scrappy and resilient is nice, but when you can’t really throw or run the ball with any reliability, this SF bunch isn’t a team you want to be seeing on the road in a demanding quick-turnaround spot. I think the 49ers will win this one and cover the spread.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the San Francisco 49ers minus 10.5 points. Note: We’ve got a NEW 100% bonus to offer! Deposit $100 to $300 and use bonus code PREDICTEM and get a 100% real cash bonus at BetUS Sportsbook!
