Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans Point Spread – Free Pick ATS

Washington Commanders (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (1-7-1 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)

Week 11 NFL

Date/Time: Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 1PM EST

Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

TV: Fox

Point Spread: WAS -3/HOU +3 (BAS – STOP wasting your hard earned money! Stop laying -110 odds! You can bet on sports for -105 here!)

Over/Under Total: 40.5

The Washington Commanders battle the Houston Texans in week 11 action from NRG Stadium on Sunday. The Commanders are coming off the short week, but it was a fruitful one, as they became the only team to beat the Eagles this season, scoring a nice 32-21 win to get back to .500 on MNF. They get a golden opportunity to get over. 500 this week as they take on the one-win Texans. Last week, the Texans were on the road, falling to the Giants 24-16. Still, they’ve been a little tougher than their record would indicate. Can they hold down the fort this week, or will the Commanders roll?

Houston: Not as Easy as it Looks

A win and a tie on the season is their bottom line, and from that standpoint, it doesn’t look great. Still, a 4-4-1 record against the spread and some close calls illustrate that going against Houston is hardly the slam dunk some think it will end up being. There are some damning facts about them. They can’t stop the run. That isn’t good when you’re going against the Commanders. While they’ve gotten a boost from Dameon Pierce at running back, they’re still not really anything special on the ground or through the air. Top receiver Brandin Cooks isn’t happy to be there, and finding aerial production on a consistent basis is a massive challenge.

Still, you like to see a team trying hard, and the Texans are doing that for head coach Lovie Smith. While they aren’t playing for anything substantive like a spot in the playoffs, there are still prideful pros who have been marginalized and are still looking to make a solid impression for future considerations. Their defense hasn’t been good, and counting on good games from opposing running backs has been a pretty sure bet this season. But between their pass rush, some occasional playmaking in the secondary, and a lot of effort, they’ve only allowed two opponents so far this season to surpass 29 points. And let’s not forget a schedule that has been tough, especially recently. After playing opponents in the last three games who are now a combined 21-6, maybe hosting Washington will give way to some better results.

Are the Commanders Coming Around?

With four wins in their last five games, with their only loss being on a last-second FG to a one-loss Vikings team, we see some things from the Commanders that force us to tweak our previous appraisal. We need to acknowledge the work of QB Taylor Heinicke, a scrapper who seems to extract a little more from what’s around him than his predecessor. We see Heinicke’s presence extract more out of guys like WR Terry McLaurin, who has really come to life, in addition to RB Antonio Gibson. Prior to Heinicke coming into the fold, Gibson was almost invisible and is now making solid contributions. And now a defense that has started coming around will perhaps regain the services of pass-rushing specialist DE Chase Young. It’s not that hard to see things coming together better for the Commanders, even if they are still a team with a lot of holes.

We see an O-line starting to play better for Heinicke. Some guys are coming back into the fold or are getting their legs under them, with RB Brian Robinson warming up to this offense, TE Logan Thomas starting to come around, and the return of a good rookie receiver in Jahan Dotson, who looks to reclaim some of the form he flashed earlier in the season. Along with a healthy Curtis Samuel chiming in, we are starting to see an offense that can do some consistent damage. In other words, it would be foolish to write off their four wins in five games streak as some sort of accident. They are making a real effort here to get into the thick of things, and after all it took to get to this spot, falling flat or mailing it in against Houston doesn’t seem like it would be part of their team trajectory right now.

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Hope for Houston This Week

It’s a bit of a funky road spot for Washington, with much of their roster having not set foot in this stadium. Coming off the short week where they presumably put a lot of energy into upsetting their unbeaten divisional foe, reproducing that same urgency on the short week against a one-win team might be challenging. Sure, they’re clearly on a mission to climb into the playoff race, so there will be the overall urgency of that sentiment. Still, Houston has benefitted this season from teams not approaching games with them with a mental fever pitch. After last week’s big push, might we see a less-effervescent Washington team on the road and out of their wheelhouse this week?

Lay the Number on the Road Favorite

This is a dangerous spot against a Houston team where Washington will be out of their element, taking on a team that can put forward a better product than many anticipate. Washington is far from being a team immune to putting forth a big clunker from week to week. But as pieces continue filing back into the rotation, I’m not sure this is a good time to go against the Commanders. Down the road, they might hit a wall, and this push will fall flat, but as of now, I think they’re primed to come into Houston and perform well, at least well enough to win a close game and get the cover on Sunday. I’ll take the Commanders this week.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Washington Commanders minus 3 points. Bet your Week 11 NFL predictions for FREE by scoring a 125% real cash bonus up to $400 by entering bonus code PREDICTEM at GTBets! They’ll also give you a free half point everytime you bet your favorite teams!