Washington Redskins(2-4SU,2-4ATS) vs.Denver Broncos(6-1SU,3-3-1ATS)
Date and Time:/October 27, 4:25 PM E
Where:Sports Authority Field at Mile High
byJeffHochman,Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread:Wash +13/DEN -13
The Denver Broncos look to bounce back from its first loss of the season
when they host the Washington Redskins. Denver did not
getoutplayed last Sunday night against the Colts. The Broncos lost 39-33
as 6-point road chalk despiteoutgainingIndy by 95 yards. Denver is 6-1
ITS (in the stats) this season. Washington won a high-scoring game 45-41
as slight homedogs against the Bears. The RedskinsoutgainedChicago by
140 yards and improved to 3-3 ITS this year.
The Redskins rushed for a season-high 209 yards against the Bears last week. They will go up against a run defense that allows just 77.1 rushing yards per game. It will beimportantfor Washington to establish a running game, so feeding Alfred Morris and RoyHeluearly and often will keep Manning and company off the field. The Broncos are allowing 320 yards per game through the air, but that number is skewed by the fact that teams areforcedto throw the ballquite oftenin the second half of games. Still, Denver has allowed some big plays in the passing game. The Redskins will try to spread the Broncos D out to set up some favorablematchups. Washington is ranked 27thin red zoneefficiencyand will need to produce 7’s and not 3’s if they want to cover this contest.
The Redskins are 4-0 in their last four games as DD road underdogs. I just don’t know if they have the type of pass defense that can at least slow down the Broncos high-powered offense. After losing their first game of the season, you can be sure these Broncos will be fired up at home. The Broncoshave the top scoring offense ranking first in both points, at 42.6 and yards per game at 469.3. Denveris minus two in turnoverdifferential. All eyes will be on Peyton Manning. He is completing 71.6% of his passes and has thrown 25 TD passes in justseven games. On the flip side, the Redskins offense isaveraging25.3 points and 415.8 yards per game. They are just minus one in turnover ratio.
Special teams could play a big role in this contest. The Broncos are ranked No. 3 while the Redskins are ranked dead last at No. 32 according to Football Outsiders. The one problem the Redskins have right nowis tackling, or lack of it.The Redskins are last in opponents net yardage after the first hit. Not a goodpositionto be going up against afutureHall of Fame QB. Peyton Manning has been limited inpracticebut isscheduledto start. The Broncos also have a huge edge in offensive line play as the Redskins have struggled all year in pass protection. Look for the Broncos to dial up someblitzpackages early and often.
The Redskins are 7-2 ATS all time versus Denver. The highest previous line was 9 points which the Redskins covered twice. Washington is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 8. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Denver is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 8.
This game marks MikeShanahan’sreturn to Denver where he was let go after the 2009 season. He would like nothing more than to win this game. I just don’t know if this is the right spot.
Jeff’sPick to Cover the Point Spread:Pass.
This game will be fun to watch. No bets!