NFL Week 3 Picks: Battles and Blowouts
By David A. Lane Predictem.com
The National Football League has already given us some exciting finishes, memorable games, and to some hefty paydays. As far as hefty paydays are concerned, this weekend promises more of the same which I personally cannot wait to take further advantage of. Now I’m not tooting my own horn here or anything (3 of 4 against the spread last week) because really, last weekend’s games just seemed to make sense- kind of like the analogy in baseball that when a batter’s especially hot at the plate, the baseball ‘must look like a beach ball to him’- which made me act and take the advantage.
The Baltimore Ravens (2-0) are always a good place to start for me because they’re almost always underrated and disrespected by Vegas despite the fact that they just keep on paying those who put money behind them, doing so in 16 of their last 21 times out, making them distinctly a bargain on most occasions.
This week they host a team that is as adept at being bad at the game as the Ravens are at being successful, the Cleveland Browns; annually one of my favorite teams to bet against being 6-11-1 during the same time span as Baltimore’s. The Browns defense is giving up more than 200 yards a game rushing thus far- a fact that will have RB’s Willis McGahee (25ATT, 164YDS, 4TD’s) and rookie Ray Rice (27ATT, 202YDS) lickin’ their chops- and that looks to continue here while it opens up the passing game for impressive QB Joe Flacco (62.3% Comp, 497 Yards, 5TDS).
The Ravens defense seems to have slipped a bit especially against the pass (29’th) after losing defensive coordinator Rex Ryan to the New York Jets, and, although that won’t affect the winner outright all that much, it could very well come in to play ATS since they are hefty 13 point favorites here which they probably deserve to be.
A bargain the Ravens are not, this week, though all signs point to them, it is the game’s total of 38 that catches my eye and I’m making the over the choice here because 13 just feels like just too many points to give away to a team that might just have a bit of a let down here after their huge victory in San Diego last week.
The San Francisco 49ers (2-0) are playing with purpose for new coach Mike Singletary and this week they go to play Brett Favre (77.08% Com, 265 Yards, 3 TD’s) and his Minnesota Vikings (2-0) who have looked really tough so far. The 49ers excel at rushing defense (3rd) allowing only 53 yards a game while the Vikings strength on offense is rushing (2nd) averaging 168.5 yards a game making for what should be an interesting matchup. The ‘Niners Frank Gore (237 yards and 4 TD’s) must find some holes to rush through while the defense must stuff the Vikes Adrian Peterson (272 yards and 4 TD’s) for them to do so but they could very well find a way to win this. Six and a half points is too many because this is going to be a hard fought physical battle that Minnesota hasn’t yet encountered in their wins against Cleveland and the Detroit Lions- the 49ers are the play.
The Washington Redskins (1-1) have been unimpressive on offense again so far but this week they go to Michigan to play the Detroit Lions (0-2) whose defense is league worst in points allowed at 36 a game so this one should help them get things going. Though they’ve been bad on offense, the defense is very good (7 th in points allowed) allowing only 15 points in two games and should harass rookie QB Matthew Stafford (357 Yards, 1 TD, 5 INT) constantly. Though the Lions have failed to cover while being dogs of 14 and 10 in weeks one and two, the odds-makers have them listed as getting only 6.5 points here, take the Redskins and an easy victory.
Somehow, after Sunday night’s debacle, the Dallas Cowboys (1-1) have been made a nine point favorite at home against the Carolina Panthers (0-2), and my question is why? Now the Panthers have been terrible so far but have also played good competition and should be really hungry; needing a win in the worst way. Though Dallas has a prolific offense scoring over 32 points a game (2nd)) they have too because they give up a ton of points on defense averaging 27 a game (26th). Timely interceptions always seem to happen at the worst times to these ‘Boys, usually giving the opponent the edge they need to win not to mention cover, the Panthers are the pick, take the points.
When the sun is shining there’s almost nothing that’s as much fun as winning at wagering on football and it’s not so much just from the money won- although that part doesn’t suck- it’s also from the pride that feeds your ego and stokes your senses. Keeping it in perspective is most important because all weekend’s aren’t going to be like a day at the beach so letting a good streak go to your head can be a bettor’s greatest mistake- it’s okay to be humble and act like winning is what was supposed to happen. More big paydays on Sunday to all!