Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC Predictions 5/1/22

by | Apr 29, 2022 | soccer

Philadelphia Union (5-1-2, 17 points, 1st place Eastern Conference) vs. Nashville SC (3-3-2, 11 points, 8th place Western Conference)

When: Sunday, May 1, 4 p.m.

Where: Geodis Park, Nashville, Tenn.

TV: ESPN

Moneyline: Philadelphia +230/Nashville +140/Draw +195 (BAS - Bet on soccer matches at reduced odds! It costs you nothing and pays more!)

Total: Over 2.5 (+130)/Under 2.5 (-175)

Last Time Out:

Philadelphia drew 1-1 with Montreal; Nashville lost 1-0 to Los Angeles Galaxy.

Previous Meeting:

The sides drew 1-1 on November 28 at Subaru Park in Chester, Pa.

About the Matchup:

This match is one that Nashville has waited forever since it entered MLS in 2020, as it is now set to open its 30,000-seat soccer stadium in central Tennessee. The Six Strings had previously played at the Titans’ home stadium, but they’ll now have the largest home crowd in a stadium that isn’t shared with an NFL team in MLS. They’ll also finally get to play a home match for the first time in 2022, as they started the year with eight consecutive road matches to allow their stadium to finish in time. Nashville hasn’t done poorly at all playing away from home this season, as the Blue and Gold have used the defense-first strategy that made them such a nightmare to play against a season ago. Their record might not be stellar right now, but playing eight matches on the road to start the year will do that.

They’ll open their new home by welcoming in Philadelphia, which isn’t exactly playing its best soccer at the moment. The Union haven’t seen it hurt them in the standings to this point, as they remain atop the Eastern Conference, but they have only taken one point in their past two matches and appear to be missing something in their attack at the moment. Philadelphia remains rock-solid on defense, but if the Union don’t figure out something in the final third, they’re going to have a hard time holding their position.

Scouting Philadelphia:

In Daniel Gazdag and Julian Carranza, the Union have two solid scorers who really should have more than the seven goals they have between them. Yet Philadelphia only managed four shots on goal and scored just one goal off a penalty against Montreal, and the Union only have 11 goals as a team all season. They didn’t look very threatening at all in the second half of their match with Montreal despite playing at home, and they’ve been rather wasteful with their chances when they have created good looks at the goal.

And yet, it’s worked out because Philadelphia has dominated at the back. Toronto is the only team that’s found the mesh more than once against the Union, who boasts one of the best keepers in MLS in Andre Blake. Beyond him, Philadelphia just doesn’t make a lot of mistakes at the backline, which means that there aren’t a lot of quality chances to best Blake at the net. It often takes something special to beat Philadelphia, which is usually perfectly happy to slow the match down and emerge with either a draw or a one-goal victory.

Scouting Nashville SC:

You can’t keep going on the road every match without having it eventually come back to bite you, and it did in Nashville’s most recent matches in California against San Jose and Los Angeles Galaxy. Against the Galaxy, the Six Strings managed a mere four shots, with only one even forcing a save in a 1-0 loss to Los Angeles that really wasn’t that close.

Playing at home should give Nashville a boost, although what would really help is seeing someone take the lead on the attack for NSC. The Six Strings have a mere eight goals on the season, and while Hany Mukhtar is a key setup man, having assisted on four of the six goals that he didn’t score, the reality is that there is no one guy that can be counted on to pull a match out of the fire. That can work out when a team can’t defend every scoring option, but when nobody is really ready to step up, it makes it tough for a team to pull off the attack needed to turn one point into three.

Dan’s Best Bets:

These teams have met three times in their history, and all three have been low-scoring affairs, with neither side hitting the net more than once. As such, I think that even though there’s a lot of juice that comes with it, the under is the safest way to play this. However, we can always do better than -175, and I think Nashville to score exactly once at +155 offers excellent value. The Six Strings scored exactly one goal in four of eight matches this season, and with Philadelphia playing tough defense, one goal is likely all that Nashville is going to get.
For a very aggressive play, I’ll take Nashville and under 2.5 goals at +310. The home crowd in the first game at Geodis Park should help the Six Strings lockdown on Philadelphia, and the Union’s poor shooting as of late means that a match without a goal is coming for this team. I think there’s a good chance that this is the one.

Dan’s Score Prediction:

I thought hard about taking the draw in this situation, but I think playing at home after nearly two months on the road will make the difference for a defensive-minded Nashville squad. The Union aren’t playing their best at the moment and need the kind of reset that comes with a loss to get their minds right, and I think that’s what’s going to occur here.

I think one goal is going to decide this match. I’ll take Nashville to claim a 1-0 decision at +550. Bet your soccer picks FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit up to $500 when you use bonus/promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!