Soccer Picks: Bayern Munich vs. VFL Wolfsburg 6/27/20
Bayern Munich (25-4-4, 79 points, 1st place) vs. VFL Wolfsburg (13-10-10, 49 points, 6th place)
When: Saturday, June 27, 9:30 a.m.
Where: Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg, Germany
Point Spread: Bayern Munich -1/Wolfsburg +1
Moneyline: Bayern Munich -134/Wolfsburg +290/Draw +310
Total: Over 3.5 (-115)/Under 3.5 (-121)
Odds available at BetOnline (They have one of best in-game betting platforms on the web!)
Last Time Out:
Bayern Munich defeated Freiburg 3-1; Wolfsburg routed Schalke 4-1.
Bayern Munich defeated Wolfsburg 2-0 on Dec. 21 at Allianz Arena in Munich.
About the Matchup:
This is a match of honor for Bayern Munich, which rolled to the title by winning an incredible 18 of their final 19 games. Bayern simply has a sixth gear that nobody else in the Bundesliga has, and as soon as the Bavarians hit it, that was the end of the road for the rest of the league. With an 80-point campaign within their sights, Bayern is going to want to close this season out strong.
That’s the last thing Wolfsburg needs because this match means the difference between automatic passage to the group stage of the Europa League (and a guaranteed $3.3 million in prize money) and having to play through the qualifying rounds of the competition (with the guarantee reduced to $295,000). Wolfsburg and seventh-placed Hoffenheim have both qualified for the Europa League, but with both teams tied on points, whoever has the better outcome in their match will get sixth place and an automatic spot in the group stage. A win of any kind will do it for Wolfsburg, but a draw or a loss opens the door for Hoffenheim. Unfortunately for the Wolves, Bayern has shown no signs of letting its foot off the gas.
Scouting Bayern Munich:
It seems like Bayern was always destined to be champions with a lineup that includes Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller, but this has been a masterful coaching job by Hansi Flick. Bayern was rudderless for the first third of the season, but since Flick took over, the Bavarians have played like champions and looked like the top side in Europe.
What’s made Bayern’s run so impressive is that there haven’t even been many close calls for the Bavarians. Less than two goals have decided only three of Bayern’s last ten matches, and the Bavarians have trailed just once, falling behind for 17 minutes in a 4-2 win over Bayer Leverkusen. The Bayern defense hasn’t been quite as sharp over the past four matches, giving up a goal in three of them, but the offense has been strong enough that it hasn’t really mattered. With Lewandowski on 33 goals, there’s plenty of reason to expect him to give one final strong performance before the Champions League resumes in August.
Is there such a thing as a road-court hero? If there is, Wolfsburg would be that team. The Wolves have been deadly away from home since the pause, winning four of five matches on the road, but at the Volkswagen Arena, they’ve been punchless, losing two games and giving away a two-goal lead in a draw against Freiburg.
Wout Weghorst has done a credible job of spearheading the Wolves’ attack with three goals in Wolfsburg’s past three matches and 16 goals on the year (fourth in the Bundesliga), but the rest of his side has often been missing in action. In particular, the defense has been a significant problem at home, as Wolfsburg has allowed two goals in all three of its home matches since the pause.
Dan’s Best Bets:
Unlike the NFL, there is no resting players for the playoffs in the Bundesliga because there are no playoffs, so Bayern has every reason to keep pushing for another win. Wolfsburg has to either get something out of this match or hope for help from Borussia Dortmund against Hoffenheim, so look for the Wolves to play conservatively and hope to steal a point. Because of that, I think the under has fantastic value here, as it’s likely going to take Bayern some time to break down the Wolves’ defense. I believe the Bavarians will do it eventually, but I think it’s going to come in the second half of the match.
Because of that, I really like Bayern to win with under 3.5 goals in the match, which is paying out at a generous +240. If the goal comes late enough, it could allow Bayern to simply boss the final 25 minutes or so, which would make a win and under 2.5 goals at +575 an excellent aggressive strategy.
If you think the goal comes early, however, you might want to play Bayern to win and both teams to score. If Bayern scores in the first half, the Wolves will have no choice but to press the issue and try to get the draw that they need to keep pace with Hoffenheim. Given that Wolfsburg has conceded in the first half in every home match, a Bayern win and both teams to score at +155 is a good conservative way to play. Bet this week’s soccer predictions for FREE by taking advantage of a fat 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $250 at GTBets Sportsbook! See our GTBets Review for a bunch of reasons to make them a part of your betting arsenal!
Dan’s Score Prediction:
I think Hoffenheim is very unlikely to beat Dortmund on the road, which means a draw will almost certainly be good enough for Wolfsburg — and I think the Wolves know it. I think Wolfsburg is likely to park the bus in this match and “defend” as its life depends on it in hopes of getting a scoreless draw and claiming the precious point that’s worth $3 million to the club.
But I don’t think Bayern’s going to let it happen. Lewandowski and Muller are too good, and Flick’s men have done too much to let this season end with anything but another win. It’s going to take a while to break down this defense, but I think Bayern will do it eventually and then get a second goal to ice it when Wolfsburg is forced to push everyone forward in hopes of an equalizer. I’m loving +1150 odds to take Bayern to replicate the scoreline from December and win this match 2-0.
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