Southampton vs. Liverpool Prediction to Win - England Premier League Match Preview - 12:15 PM EST Sunday February 22, 2015 St Mary’s Stadium, Southampton England
By Jason Green, Soccer Handicapper, Predictem.com
Match Odds: Southampton 2.50 / Liverpool 2.80 / Draw 3.30
Moneyline: Southampton +150 / Liverpool +180 / Draw +230
Over/Under: 2.5 goals
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NOTE: Check back for injuries for Liverpool, as they have a Europa League match on Thursday night.
Southampton has been the biggest surprise in the Premier League this season, as they sit in 4th place in the league table. They have 3 wins, 1 loss, and a draw in their last 5 matches and they are the slight betting favorite facing Liverpool.
Liverpool got off to a poor start to EPL play, but they have bounced back and they sit in 7th place in the league table only 3 points back of Southampton. The Reds are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches with 6 wins and 3 draws.
Southampton is not just beating the bottom feeders in the EPL, as they already have wins over Manchester United and Arsenal. While the Reds are the slight betting underdog in this match the last time they visited St Mary’s Stadium, which was last season, they came away with a 3-0 win. On top of that in the opening match of the season Liverpool was at home and beat the Saints.
The reason that Southampton is winning is their defense, which has conceded the fewest goals in the EPL. They are getting solid goalie play, but their back line has been stellar allowing the fewest shots of any EPL side. They have allowed 1 or less goals in their last 10 Premier League matches.
Graziano Pelle. Leads Southampton with 8 goals on the season, but 6 came in the first 8 matches and he has not found the net since the middle of December. Shane Long and Jay Rodriguez are still injured and Sadio Mane (5 goals) have to provide a spark for the offense that has only scored 1 goal in their last 3 matches.
The Reds are in solid form and they have scored 5 goals in their last 2 matches. They have 2 wins in their last 2 road matches and they were facing the solid teams of Tottenham and West Ham.
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Ageless MF Steven Gerrard leads the Reds in goals this season with 6, as they have a balanced attack with 9 players that have at least 2 goals. Daniel Sturridge has 2 goals and he has been plagued by injury this whole season. However, he should be in the starting 11 in this big match and he scored the winning goal facing Southampton in the season opener.
One big question in this match is will Gerrard play? He will not be plying in the Thursday evening Europa League match and if he cannot go it will be a big blow to the Reds.
Raheem Sterling ranks 2nd on the Reds with 5 goals this season and he has scored in each of the last 2 matches facing Southampton.
In their last 10 matches Liverpool has an O/U 2.5 goal record of 5-5 and Southampton is at 3-7.
Southampton Recent Form
1/17/2015 Newcastle United 1 Southampton 2 (Premier League)
1/24/2015 Southampton 2 Crystal Palace 3 (FA Cup)
2/1/2015 Southampton 0 Swansea City 1 (Premier League)
2/7/.2015 Queens Park Rangers 0 Southampton 1 (Premier League)
2/11/2015 Southampton 0 West Ham United 0 (Premier League)
Liverpool Recent Form
1/31/2015 Liverpool 2 West Ham United 0 (Premier League)
2/4/2015 Bolton Wanderers 1 Liverpool 2 (FA Cup)
2/7/2015 Everton 0 Liverpool 0 (Premier League)
2/10/2015 Liverpool 3 Tottenham Hotspur 2 (Premier League)
2/14/2015 Crystal Palace 1 Liverpool 2 (FA Cup)
Jason’s Prediction: Many experts are picking Southampton to win this match, but I have to disagree. The Reds are on a roll an while Southampton has been great on the defensive side of the pitch in the last few matches the Res will crack their back line in this match. I see a pretty close match here, especially in the midfield, but Liverpool has much more offensive firepower up front and they will win this match.