Uruguay vs. England - World Cup Match Preview and Pick - 5 PM EST Thursday June 19, 2014 Arena Corinthians Sao Paulo Brazil
By Jason Green, World Cup Handicapper, Predictem.com
Match Odds: Uruguay 3.70 / England 2.15 / Draw 3.40
Moneyline: Uruguay +270 / England +115 / Draw +240
Over/Under: 2.5 goals
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In a Group D match up that is, pretty much, a must win for both squads Uruguay faces England. Both teams lost their group openers and if there is a loser in this match they will likely have no chance to make it to the round of 16.
Uruguay came into the World Cup with high hopes after their semifinals appearance in the 2010 World Cup, but they were shocked in the opener losing to a Costa Rica team that nobody expected to make any noise in Brazil. Uruguay lost the match 3-1 without their leading striker, but it was the team’s defense that played poorly and cost them the match.
England played decent in their 2-1 opening group loss to Italy and they are the betting favorite facing Uruguay.
England and Uruguay have faced each other 10 times with Uruguay with 4 wins, England with 3, and three draws.
Luis Suarez led the England Premier League in goals this season with Liverpool and he missed the Costa Rica match due to an injury. However, he has declared himself match fit and should play in this HUGE encounter.
Uruguay does not have a great midfield while the English do, which is one of the main reasons they are the betting favorite. Steven Gerrard is the leader of the England midfield and the squad is a great passing one. The South American side has to slow down the pace of the match in the midfield and if they do not and get dominated in the time of possession they will be in big trouble.
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Wayne Rooney did not have the best match facing Italy, but he should still get the start in this one. He and Daniel Sturridge, who scored the goal in the Italy match, will be a major handful for the Uruguay back line defense. England had many solid scoring chances in the Italy match and they need to capitalize on them facing Uruguay.
Like England Uruguay had scoring chances in their match facing Costa Rica, but could not convert. While Suarez is their big gun on the attack the squad still features Diego Forlan who was the top player in the 2010 World Cup, and Edinson Cavani. These 2 looked a little out of sorts in the Costa Rica match and Suarez on the pitch gives Uruguay a much better chance to win.
Sturridge, Rooney, and Raheem Sterling was a very creative trio in the Italy match and Uruguay has to keep these guys from repeating that feat around their box.
Both teams have a good attack and since each really need to take away 3 points from the match each will push forward on the attack. Because of that the opposing defense and midfield must create counter-attack chances, which each will have.
Rooney and company overmatches the Uruguay back line, but the midfield cannot drop back on defense, as they need to press the issue on offense since a draw hurts them.
England Recent Form
3/5/2014 England 1 Denmark 0 (Friendly)
5/30/2014 England 3 Peru 0 (Friendly)
6/4/2014 Ecuador 2 England 2 (Friendly)
6/7/2014 England 0 Honduras 0 (Friendly)
6/14/2014 England 1 Italy 2 (World Cup)
Uruguay Recent Form
11/20/2013 Uruguay 0 Jordan 0 (World Cup Qualifier)
3/5/2014 Austria 1 Uruguay 1 (Friendly)
5/30/2014 Uruguay 1 Northern Ireland 0 (Friendly)
6/4/2014 Uruguay 2 Slovenia 0
6/14/2014 Uruguay 1 Costa Rica 3 (World Cup)
Jason’s Prediction to Win: If each team plays like they did in their last match England should have no problems getting a win. However, I think Uruguay will play much better and Suarez will play. Still, the problem for Uruguay in this match is not their defense, but their midfield, which will get dominated by England. I do not think Uruguay will give goals up in bunches like they did against Costa Rica, but they will let at least 2 in and England will win the match by a score of 2-1.