UFC 150 Picks: Henderson vs. Edgar II, August 11, 2012, 10pm ET, Pepsi Center, Denver, PPV
by Evergreen, Mixed Martial Arts Handicapper, Predictem.com
Frankie Edgar is the Phil Connors of the UFC.Phil Connors, of course, is the character played by Bill Murray in the movie Groundhog Day.Edgar is like Connors in that he seems to face nothing but the same opponents over and over again. Previously, The Answer has fought B.J. Penn in consecutive contests and faced Gray Maynard on three separate occasions.He squares off against another familiar foe this Saturday at UFC 150 where he hopes to avenge his loss to Benson Henderson at UFC 144 and regain the Lightweight Title.The online gambling sites like Henderson to retain his title with Bovada listing the champ at minus-200 and Frankie at +160.
The main event is always the focal point of any pay-per-view but the undercard has some great matchups as well as Donald Cerrone battles Melvin Guillard and Jake Shields squares off with Ed Herman.
Benson Smooth Henderson (15-2-0) vs. Frankie The Answer Edgar (14-2-1)
With both fighters possessing similar styles and strengths, this re-match from UFC 144 looks to be a very high-end strategy fight.Henderson and Edgar are both strong wrestlers but it might be tough for either to get the other to the ground with both men equally adept at stuffing a takedown.Cardio is seldom an issue at 155 pounds and we could easily see another five round decision this weekend with neither fighter really known as a knockout artist.Benson is ultra-dangerous if he gets his hands on Edgars neck, however and will be looking for his ninth win by submission, with most of the previous eight coming by choke.A lot of times, a re-match comes after both contestants have fought other opponents but an immediate do-over like this makes both camps switch up strategy a little.I dont think well see a massive departure from what these guys have displayed in the past but I do see Edgar coming out more aggressive and attempting to win rounds early to apply some pressure to the champ.Frankie is used to getting himself out of early trouble but he found out that fighting from behind will lose you your belt.Henderson is the smoother fighter, making his nickname very appropriate, and he should be able to control Edgar if he can land some strikes, especially that southpaw jab.Benson is the better ground and pound practitioner and really has an advantage on the mat if he can keep Frankie there and make him defend heavily out of his guard.
My Pick to Win: Henderson (Decision)
Every fight is just one punch away from ending but neither Henderson nor Edgar has had a history of getting caught.Look for a pretty rapid pace with both trying to volume strike more than in the first match.I think is Henderson that has the advantage on the feet and that should lead to a window to shoot and get the fight to the ground but Edgar is so tough to stop that a decision is so much more probable than a stoppage.
Donald The Cowboy Cerrone (18-4-0, 1NC) vs. Melvin The Young Assassin Guillard (47-113, 1NC)
The co-main event Saturday matches another pair of 155 pounders and this one could easily produce the knockout of the night.Both Cerrone and Guillard like to strike and neither is afraid to take a punch to land one of their own.Guillard is long on experience with over 60 professional MMA bouts but the online betting sites like Cerrone as the favorite, listing him at minus-325 with Guillard at plus-260.Melvin is the better pure athlete and the former boxer knows has ended 19 opponents by KO, utilizing a full complement of strikes, including some vicious knees recently.Guillard is also very aggressive and that has got him in trouble lately as Dan Miller and Joe Lauzon both stunned Melvin before ending his night with rear naked chokes.Cerrone is an accomplished kickboxer and is looking to get nearer to a title shot after going 5-1 in his first six UFC fights with his only loss coming to Nate Diaz.He must avoid the forward pressure and would like to get the fight to the ground or get the back where he has been tremendously successful in ending 13 of 18 opponents with submissions, mostly via the choke.
Pick to Win: Cerrone (2ndround stoppage)
This one should be action packed and we could see a brawl like we used to back in the early days of the UFC.Guillard is actually very good at avoiding strikes but it seems like sticks his nose in there one too many times and it goes wrong in a hurry.You have to think that this one stays on the feet so Guillard has the proverbial punchers chance but I think Cerrone finds a way frustrate Melvin into a mistake and either knocks him out or takes advantage with a submission.
Jake Shields (27-6-1) vs. Ed Short Fuse Herman (20-7)
UFC 150 has another great matchup with Jake Shields and Ed Herman.Shields is looking to get back into form after back to back losses at the hands of Georges St. Pierre and Jake Ellenberger.He did so in part with a Feb. 12thdecision win over Yoshihiro Akiyama in Japan and he is favored to continue his winning ways with Bovada listing him at minus-200 with Herman at plus-160.Herman comes in riding a three fight win streak and has stopped all those fights in the first or second round.Twelve of Eds wins have come via submission and the TUF season 3 finalist will look to score in the clinch or turn this fight to the ground where he has just about every submission tool at his disposal.Shields is certainly no-pushover and the Gracie black belt can push the pace of this fight all night, which might prove an advantage in the thin Denver air.
Pick to win: Herman (Decision)
This is the biggest name that Herman has faced in his pro career but Shields seems to be a different fighter since St. Pierre ended his 15 fight win streak.Jake has only recorded three knockouts in his career so Herman shouldnt fear cutting the distance and taking the fight right to Shields.Ed is also a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt so he will have an opportunity to be offensive on the ground and he has found a way to complete 53% of his takedowns in the Ocatagon.Shields finds a way to go the distance but its Herman that wins 29-28.