UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 Picks
When: Saturday, September 19, 2026
Where: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
TV: Paramount
by Loot of Predictem.com
Fight Analysis:
UFC 331 in Los Angeles on the 19th features a rematch from a December 2025 title bout, where an arm injury seconds into the fight forced Alexandre Pantoja to lose his UFC Flyweight Title to challenger Joshua Van. The “loss” ended a dominant recent run for Pantoja at 125 pounds, as he was making the fifth defense of his title. Still, it was the 6th straight win for Van who at the tender age of 24 has really come into his own and looks to show that his status as a champion is a legitimate one. His KO title defense of tough Tatsura Taito in May did that in the eyes of some, but how he will fare against Pantoja is another matter. The razor-close odds of this fight attest to the difficulty of calling this one right. Let’s break it down!
Joshua Van, 17-2 (9 KOs, 2 Submissions), (-120) vs. Alexandre Pantoja, 30-6 (8 KOs, 12 Submissions), (Even)
UFC Flyweight Champion Joshua Van makes his second title defense against the man he won it from in Alexandre Pantoja. Van, 12 years younger than the 36-year old Pantoja, may not have impressed in his fluky title-win over Pantoja, but his recent success and underdog win in his first defense over Taito have elevated his status. Pantoja is older, coming off an injury, and eager to show that the 125-pound class hasn’t suddenly passed him by.
One can’t doubt that Van’s fifth-round May KO over a man many had pegged as a future champ in Taito enhanced his credentials. At the same time, you’re now getting Pantoja at a far better price than you did the first time he took on Van, where he was laying a decent number. If one subscribes to the notion that styles make fights, This could be an angle to back Pantoja in a matchup that we haven’t really seen play out, with the first fight having such an anomalous conclusion. It took a bolt from the heavens in the form of a broken arm to decide the fight. Assuming that doesn’t happen again, did anything really change from the landscape 9-10 months ago that had Pantoja listed as a favorite? Now as an underdog, it enhances the option of taking a man who has more-established championship credentials.
Or do we look at the writing on the wall? Did Pantoja breaking his arm as he fell after Van caught a kick a sign that age has perhaps caught up with him? With him on the sidelines rehabbing his injury for the better part of the year while Van is scoring knockout wins another sign? After a nice run of winning the belt with a nice handful of defenses, should we rely on some historical patterns and just assume the gravy-period for Pantoja has come to a close? It is just that we don’t have a long history of aging ex-champions regaining their belts this late into their career? It’s a fight where you try your best to assess the respective talents of each fighter, while countless notions of what we’ve been taught and what we’ve noticed about fighting in general claws at our conscience. Stylistically, some of the same things from their first fight still attract me to the versatile Pantoja as a potential choice, while everything else that comes into mind tends to make that choice less-shimmering.
Pantoja likes to get in there aggressively with some wild strikes and work for a takedown. Van is actually in a good spot stylistically with his squat frame where he can use a low center of gravity, along with some compact inside punching, to assuage those takedown efforts from Pantoja. The one daunting proposition for Pantoja is that Van is better now, confident from his title-win and subsequent defense to the point where it’s a different proposition than it was leading to their first match. Van has now been exposed to the realm of title fights, and will have now gone through two camps to prepare for what Pantoja does best.
One of Pantoja’s attributes is his ability to press on undaunted and start to run guys into the ground in the later rounds. Van’s title defense where he grinded for a late TKO win bolsters that aspect of Van’s profile. Still, backers of Pantoja would still like to see the fight go that way, where we’ve seen the ex-champ summon what he needs time and again for the big win. The flip side of that is that Pantoja’s trademark aggression, combined with the bad blood and his eagerness to atone for his last appearance, could very well put him in a bad spot for the supremely-clean combinations of Van.
Despite improved takedown defense and his ability to ride out and rise from takedowns, Van can’t afford to get into that game with the stronger Pantoja. Before getting too enamored with Van’s striking, one has to also ponder the instant fight-changing ability Pantoja carries with his ability to control and end fights on the ground. So far in his career, Van has managed to avoid fights like that for the most part, but despite this being a rematch, we haven’t seen him do it against Pantoja, which represents a higher level.
I still think Van is getting better and the same can’t be said for Pantoja. He has been working on all the things for two camps now that can stymie Pantoja. His multi-fight exposure at the top level that he didn’t have the first time he fought Pantoja might also go a long way. There’s a chance Pantoja just drags him down and sinks in a finish, just as there is Van uncorks a great combo to KO Pantoja, but I picture a difficult more drawn-out fight where Van finds enough at the end to keep his title. I’m taking Joshua Van.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Joshua Van at -120 betting odds. Van’s recent success, combined with Pantoja’s inactivity, age and the injury he suffered in his first fight have made this all the more difficult a proposition for the ex-champ. And in a difficult well-matched fight, the guy with the fewer question marks stands out as the better choice.
