Race: Challenge Round 3 – Toyota/Save Mart 350
Date: Sunday, July 13th, 2025
Track: Sonoma Raceway
Time: 3:30pm ET
Channel: TNT Sports
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Our “dark horse” took the checkered flag on Sunday at Chicago’s road course. This comes as no surprise, as van Gisbergen is a whiz on street courses. This is where he shines, and all roads led to him claiming the victory. He managed to pull out the victory by 0.887s over 2nd place Ty Gibbs. It was a little dicey there at the end with van Gisbergen having to survive multiple cautions to complete his trail to victory.
The race saw quite a few incidents and even some weird circumstances. For Michael McDowell, it was the ultimate disappointment after he led a race-high 31 laps and won stage 1. He had to head to the garage to fix a stuck throttle and lost 22 laps. That was a huge disappointment for the driver who had struggled this year but was good enough to pass SVG, a feat many could not accomplish. Aside from McDowell’s woes, we saw an 8-car pileup on lap 3 that red-flagged the race for 14 minutes. Carson Hocevar was the cause of that chaos after clipping the wall at turn 10. All went awry at that point. Not everyone had a terrible day, though, with Kyle Busch capturing one of his few top 5 finishes this year. AJ Allmendinger led 2 laps and finished 6th, while Austin Hill came home with a very respectable 9th-place run.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers and teams are headed back to the road courses with Sonoma as the 3rd race in the summer challenge. This track is 2.520 miles of crazy with 12 total turns that definitely require some technical skill. Sonoma has been around on the circuit for quite some time, so it’s not as foreign a track to these guys as places like Chicago. Tires are definitely something that tends to be a factor, assuming we have some longer green-flag runs, but ultimately, these guys need to get out front and stay there to maintain track position. Passing is hard. Passing without getting in trouble is harder. Just get to the front and stay there.
Odds and Value Picks
Even though this is a road course, it doesn’t give van Gisbergen an automatic win. It is definitely a benefit that he won at Chicago last weekend, but the veteran drivers know how to get around Sonoma. Let’s take a look at your potential winners this weekend:
Winner: Kyle Larson (+600)
With 2 wins in 10 starts, Larson has a solid average finish here for total career starts. He’s had a little bit of a challenge in the last few weeks, but he’s looking to make some changes this weekend. Larson will be your guy to beat.
Mid-Range Pick: Chris Buescher (+1400)
Chicago wasn’t his greatest effort, but there’s something about Sonoma that just clicks with Buescher. With 3 top 5s in his last 3 starts, Buescher definitely has something figured out. He’s your best average finisher in recent races and is looking for that elusive win to lock him into the playoffs, and this might just be his best shot.
Dark Horse: Michael McDowell (+1000)
For anyone to pass van Gisbergen at Chicago is saying something. McDowell had a great run going before equipment failure ruined his day. With 2 top-five 5 finishes in his last 4 starts, look for McDowell to seek some redemption on Sunday.
Top 16 After Last Week’s Race:
- 1. William Byron
- 2. Chase Elliott
- 3. Kyle Larson
- 4. Denny Hamlin
- 5. Tyler Reddick
- 6. Christopher Bell
- 7. Ryan Blaney
- 8. Ross Chastain
- 9. Chase Briscoe
- 10. Alex Bowman
- 11. Chris Buescher
- 12. Joey Logano
- 13. Bubba Wallace
- 14. Ryan Preece
- 15. AJ Allmendinger
- 16. Kyle Busch
And there you have it! Kyle Busch’s top 5 finish at Chicago bumped him back into contention, taking over the 16th position. AJ Allmendinger also got back into contention after a strong finish at Chicago, with Sonoma being another good track for him. This weekend is sure to add some more wrenches to the standings. Stay tuned for a great weekend of road course racing at Sonoma!
