New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech
Denver at Indianapolis
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The Asterisk Play.
AKA The * Play.
Yes, it’s a stupid name.
I think all the names for my plays are stupid.
I think it’s stupid to even HAVE a name for plays.
It’s also kind of tout-like, something a scamdicapper would use to try to hook you on his nonsense.
But I have to have some way of referring to them when I’m charting the plays, and especially for when I’m writing about them.
But why the “Asterisk” Play?
Of the two models I use to pick Wrong Favorites, one is much stronger than the other. While looking over my charts, I wondered what the record is when the two models disagree on who the Favorite should be, AND WF1 has a margin of victory of seven or more than the book’s number.
So I went over my charts, marking each game that qualified with an asterisk. Then I went back and calculated the record for all the games marked with an asterisk. So that’s when I started calling it The Asterisk Play. (And I was correct, my Wrong Favorite model WF1 is much more profitable than WF2, even more so when factoring in a 7-point differential.)
Anyway . . .
I have two spots this weekend.
First up is a Saturday game.
WF2 says New Mexico State should be the Favorite. WF1 says La Tech is the correct Fav and its estimated margin of victory is seven points or greater, higher than the number the books hung on this one, La Tech -9′.
The Asterisk Play is 1-1 in college this season.
The Asterisk Play was 9-20 in college last season, a 69% Fade.
New Mexico State is 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS) but throw out one of the wins because it was against second-tier division Bryant.
Louisiana Tech is 1-1 SU (2-0 ATS), but their loss came against a quality team in SEC powerhouse LSU.
Both teams seem to be offensively challenged thus far (early in the schedule), so I’m not crazy about laying almost double digits in this spot.
But it qualifies for an Asterisk Play, so I’m on it.
The second spot is in the NFL on Sunday, and I like this game much better.
WF2 says Indianapolis should be the Favorite.
WF1 says Denver is the correct Favorite (and I agree with it; their defense looked terrific against Tennessee last week.)
Indianapolis cruised to an easy victory in their season opener against the Miami Dolphins, but they’re going to find the going much tougher against Denver, the second-best scoring defense in the NFL last year.
After reading all the stories praising Daniel Jones for his performance as the Colts’ starter last week, I’m licking my chops anticipating the prop action I’m going to have betting against him when he faces Denver on Sunday.
(If I get the right price, I’m going to play “Yes” on “Jones interception” – check the PredictEm forum for updates.)
When to Buy Recommendations
La Tech opened at -10′ and that’s about 3 points too high, IMO. It’s down to -10 now, so we have to buy this, hoping to get single digits by kickoff.
Denver opened at -3, and they’re all the way down to -1. Line moved in my favor since I think they’re the better team, so I’m grabbing this one now before I buy back sends it back up.
My buys:
LA Tech (wait to buy)
Den -1
Records:
College 5-5
NFL 1-0
Final note on the WNBA regular season:
Split my season win bets.
Just missed with Washington Under 14′
(They won 16.)
Won with Golden State Over 7′ (they won 23!)
I managed to close the regular season on a W, taking 14 points with the Sky, who lost by five to the Liberty last night.
That cuts my deficit down 25%.
I’m now sitting at 53-51 all picks, articles, and forum play. With juice factored in I’m down about three units.
Got some work to do in the postseason.
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