Race: NASCAR Cup Series Championship
Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025
Track: Phoenix Raceway
Time: 3pm ET
Channel: NBC
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
And that’s (almost) a wrap, folks! William Byron politely moved Ryan Blaney out of the way to capture the victory and punch his ticket to Phoenix as a contender for the championship this coming weekend in Phoenix! Blaney didn’t even blame him and said he would’ve done the same thing! It’s refreshing to see drivers racing hard, racing clean, and showing respect for the sport. Martinsville was a good race, full of strategy, with teams working hard to determine just how long their tires were going to make it and just how long the runs were going to be.
Ultimately, it was clear that Byron was the class of the field. There was no denying Byron’s dominance as he led 304 of the total 500 laps. In the last 44 laps, he was seemingly untouchable, beating Blaney to the line by 0.717 seconds, which is a notable margin here at Martinsville. Blaney and the rest of the Penske team are now left out of championship contention for the first time since this Next Gen car was introduced in 2022, a car that they have thrived with, but this year told a different story. It’s a Gibbs and Hendrick shootout for the championship.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
The two teams are going to battle it out at Phoenix. This 1.0-mile asphalt dogleg track is a really fun place to see the season culminate and crown our champion. With 9 degrees of banking through turns 1, 2, and on the front stretch, 11 degrees through 3 and 4, and just 3 degrees on the backstretch, Phoenix gives the teams a little bit of a challenge in setup. The drivers and teams will be fighting the tires this weekend as well, but track position is everything here. Looking back at starting positions, drivers starting outside of the top 10 historically have worse finishes. Watching qualifying closely for this one.
Odds and Value Picks:
Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into our championship race of 2025:
Winner: William Byron (+500)
Hamlin and Larson are pacing ahead of Byron for this one, but I’m thinking that is because of a championship lens instead of track history. Byron beats both of those guys on this track in recent starts and even has a win, which neither of those guys has in their last 7 starts. Byron is going to take it all this weekend.
Mid-Range Pick: Chris Buescher (+5000)
Buescher has been lying low, but he’s good at Phoenix, and this is one last shot for the year to show folks he’s coming back strong in 2026. With 3 top 5s and 5 top 10s in his last 7 starts, Buescher is looking to finish out 2025 strong.
Dark Horse: Daniel Suarez (+25000)
Truthfully, I hope Suarez shocks us all. Not only would that payout be amazing, but he’s coming back renewed with a different team next year in Spire Motorsports. Suarez isn’t done. He hasn’t even begun, in my opinion. How great would it be to end the year with a win? He’s got 2 top 10s in his last 7 starts. Never say never.
The champion will be crowned this weekend, one way or another, whether Suarez wins or one of the championship four drivers. Here are your final four heading into Phoenix:
- Chase Briscoe
- Denny Hamlin
- William Byron
- Kyle Larson
I like Briscoe. I’m just not sure that he’s going to be aggressive enough to take the win. Hamlin is certainly on a path to get his first championship. What will he do to get it? I’d dare say that Hamlin will be extremely aggressive in getting to victory lane this weekend. He’ll have to get through Byron, who proved he’ll move you, and his teammate, Kyle Larson, who isn’t scared of pretty much anything. This is set to be an awesome finish to the 2025 season. Stay tuned for our final race of the year and see who earns the NASCAR Cup Series Championship!
