RBD breaks down his betting decision for Portland vs San Antonio, leaning on trends, models, and playoff handicapping angles.

Portland at San Antonio
NBA Pick and Analysis on the Total

I have some uncomfortable choices to make today.
First up, what to do about my Knicks series bet.

I (foolishly, and against all my normal principles) laid -260, betting on what I thought was the better team, and the team who had more experience over the young Hawks.
But the Hawks are playing better ball, despite being down one game to two.

I can get the Hawks at +212, and I lean towards doing so, but it means I break even if the Knicks win and lose .48 if they lose.
I don’t like that option.

My other uncomfortable choice – Atlanta qualifies as a WF2 play today.
I haven’t had any of these during the playoffs, but during the regular season these finished at 7-14 when it was a Rd team like Atlanta today.
That’s a 67% Fade and usually a no-brainer, I’d jump on the play.
But it puts me in double jeopardy.
If the Knicks lose SU I lose today’s bet AND my series bet is likely down the drain.

What to do?
Look elsewhere.
How about a play on a total?

My handicapping model T1 says the Atl/NY game goes Over, but the playoff record on this is just 4-6, not much of an edge there.

Handicapping model T2 says all three games today go Over, which is not uncommon during this playoff season – T2 seems to always lean towards the Over.
And I used a few of them for Fades because it had a record of 4-12, a 25% play or 75% Fade.
But the scales are starting to level out and now it’s 13-21, a 38% play and 62% Fade.

Looking at standard stats I see the same Reversion Towards the Mean.
Earlier in the postseason the Under was hitting at an 81% clip.
Going into today’s games I have it at 13-23, a 63% clip.

Team specific wise, putting today’s games into my T1 model and looking at the Ov/Un records I have Phil/Bos and Port/SA at 1-3 and ATL/NY at 1-2.

Slight edges, but like I said tough decisions to be made today.

Next I looked at tonight’s games, using today’s numbers.
Atlanta/NY has a total of 214.
Their four game playoff record at that number would be 2-2, no edge.
Phil/Bos has a total of 213′.
Their record at that number is 2-2.
Port/SA has a total of 215.
Their record at that number is 1-3.

The only edge I see is in the Port/SA game, with a 3-1 edge to the Under.
In all seven meetings between these two this season the Ov/Un record is 2-4-1.

Overall season long Ov/Un numbers show Portland at 40-46 and San Antonio at 37-49, both favoring the Under.

I did a one year look back on last season, hoping to find something that would give me a little more confidence in the Under today.
I expect San Antonio to win SU and end the series at home tonight (and so do the bookmakers since they made them Double Digit Favs.)
Looking at first round teams that won 4-0 or 4-1 last season the Ov/Un was 4-1, but 3-2 excluding an OT game.
I went back one more year, same situation, and the record was 2-2 Ov/Un.
No real edges, nothing to be concerned about.

I’ve got slight edges in the head-to-head matchups for standard stats and on fading my handicapping models, so I’m going to ride the Under tonight.
I’m looking for two defensive minded squads to play a tight first half, and I’m hoping to get a little bit of quit out of Portland in the second half as the game slips away from them as double digit underdogs, thus ending their season.

The game opened at 217 and the number is coming down.
The common number right now is 216′ and that’s what I bought, believing it’s going to get even lower by tip-off.

My play:
Port/SA Un 216′

Recap: 1-0
Record: 4-1
Review: My last play was Ind/Tor Un 220.
After a beautiful Q1 (beautiful for Under bettors that is) of an embarrassing combined total of 31 points (yes, 31!!!) even double OT couldn’t have screwed me.
It landed on 182.
That’s THIRTY EIGHT points Under the number.
They should all be that easy…