Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Thursday, August 13, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Gillette Stadium
The Thursday night preseason slate is packed, but this is the game I want to zero in on.
The Patriots are opening at home as 1.5-point favorites over the Colts with a total of 38.5. Mike Vrabel walked into New England last season, took the Patriots from a 4-13 record under Jerod Mayo to a 14-3 season and an AFC Championship win, and lost Super Bowl LX to Seattle. That kind of turnaround is one of the best in league history. It also means expectations in Foxborough are through the roof, which is why you’ll see Vrabel taking these preseason reps seriously.
On the other sideline, Shane Steichen is entering his fourth season with the Colts under real pressure. Indianapolis started 8-2 last year, then lost seven in a row to miss the playoffs. His job is not safe if the same thing happens in 2026.
Which brings us to the actual handicapping angle here — because I don’t care about Vrabel’s Super Bowl run or Steichen’s hot seat when I’m betting a preseason game. I care about how these coaches treat August football, and this is where the pick starts to come together.
Shane Steichen has one of the most extreme preseason totals histories of any active head coach. His preseason record with the Colts sits at 8-1 to the Over. That’s an 88.9% Over rate over three preseasons. When Steichen’s team plays in August, points go up on the board. Doesn’t matter who the quarterback is. Doesn’t matter who’s on the field. His scheme creates offense in preseason play, and the results have been almost automatic.
Vrabel’s preseason record on totals with New England is smaller but pointed in the same direction. He went 2-1 to the Over during his lone preseason in Foxborough last year. Career-wise across his six seasons in Tennessee and one in New England, he’s sitting right around 50%, but his current-team trend is what matters here. Two-for-three Over with the Patriots so far.
Combine an 88.9% Over coach with a 66.7% Over coach in a preseason opener and you have a compelling case.
Here’s where it gets interesting. Daniel Jones is unlikely to play, according to reporting out of Indianapolis training camp. He’s still working his way back from an Achilles tear and Steichen is not going to risk him in an exhibition game. That takes the top quarterback off the field for the Colts, which normally would push me toward the Under. But Steichen’s 8-1 Over record was built without a Pro Bowl quarterback under center, going back to the Anthony Richardson years and the games where nothing but backups played. Whoever is throwing passes for Indianapolis on Thursday night, Steichen’s scheme is going to get them into the end zone.
The two teams also held joint practices earlier this week, which is worth noting. Joint practices sometimes mean fewer snaps for starters in the actual game since they already got their “good on good” work during practice. That could tamp down scoring a little. But with Vrabel taking preseason seriously and Steichen building his career on Over preseason totals, I don’t think joint practices are enough to flip this play.
The line has held pretty firm at 38.5. When neither the public nor the sharps have moved a preseason total more than half a point off the open, it usually means both sides are seeing a fair number. I’m happy to take the Over at that price.
I looked at the side too. Patriots -1.5 at home is a legitimate consideration, especially if Vrabel is treating this game like it matters. But we’ve seen preseason spreads flip on one backup fumble in the fourth quarter, and I don’t need that variance when the total is giving me a much cleaner path.
The Pick: Colts/Patriots Over 38.5
