Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans
Thursday, August 20, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Reliant Stadium
Thursday night’s nationally televised preseason matchup at Reliant Stadium has one of the cleanest total setups on the entire Week 2 board.
The Texans are 1.5-point home favorites with a total of 38.5. The spread has moved from Raiders -1.5 at open to Texans -1.5 currently, a full three-point swing toward Houston. Sharp money has been backing the home team since the market opened, and the reasoning holds up whether you’re looking at the coaching, the personnel, or the situational factors.
Let’s start with DeMeco Ryans.
Ryans is entering his fourth season as the Houston Texans head coach. He took over in 2023 and has made the playoffs every single year — three straight postseason appearances, two AFC South division titles, and a 12-5 record in 2025 that ended with a divisional round loss to New England. His preseason record is equally impressive: 7-3 straight up as a preseason head coach with a winning record in each of his three years running the Texans in August.
But Ryans’ identity, and the identity of every Texans team he’s coached, is defense. This is a coach who wants to see tackling, discipline, and pressure concepts. When his team plays in preseason, the games tend to stay low-scoring. That trend continued in Week 1, when Houston lost to the Chargers 27-7. The combined 34 points was well under that game’s total of 36.5, and it wasn’t because Houston’s defense collapsed — it was because both teams cycled through backups and the Texans’ offense couldn’t sustain drives against a Chargers defense that was doing exactly the same thing Ryans’ teams do.
Klint Kubiak is on the other sideline, and this is his first year as an NFL head coach. He came over from Seattle, where he was the offensive coordinator during the Seahawks’ Super Bowl LX championship season. Kubiak is going to run his offense conservatively in his second preseason game as a head coach — he’s still installing the system, still evaluating personnel, and still figuring out how his backups fit. First-year head coaches in preseason road games typically don’t press the accelerator. They’re evaluating.
Now the joint practice angle.
The Raiders and Texans have a joint practice scheduled at the Texans’ facility in Houston this week, ahead of Thursday’s game. Klint Kubiak has publicly said he wants his offensive line to get quality work against Houston’s front seven during the joint session. That matters for how Thursday’s game plays out — when two teams hold a joint practice in the days leading up to a preseason game, the veteran starters typically get their real competitive reps during the practice itself, and the actual game becomes an evaluation exercise for backups and roster bubble players. Backup-heavy preseason games tend to stay well under totals.
The personnel picture backs the Under too.
Kirk Cousins is the Raiders’ starting quarterback and has been taking every first-team rep at practice, according to reporting out of Henderson. He’ll get a series or two Thursday night before Fernando Mendoza takes over. Mendoza is the number one overall pick, and while he had a solid preseason debut against Arizona going 10-of-16 for 97 yards and a touchdown, he struggled significantly when the Cardinals brought pressure — completing just 2-of-6 passes for 11 yards with a 42.4 passer rating and a sack on pressured dropbacks. Houston’s defense is going to bring pressure. That’s the entire identity of DeMeco Ryans’ program.
And this Texans defense isn’t a preseason-caliber defense. Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. was first-team All-Pro in both 2024 and 2025. Kamari Lassiter made the Pro Bowl in 2025. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. are the most feared edge duo in the AFC. Houston picked off 19 passes in the 2025 regular season, and the Raiders’ offense led the entire NFL in interceptions thrown in Goal-to-Go situations. That’s a bad matchup profile for the visitors that plays directly into the Under.
C.J. Stroud will get his short series for Houston and then it’s Davis Mills. The Texans lost their competing backup Graham Mertz to a torn ACL in the Week 1 preseason game, which limits their ability to feature backup quarterback offense for extended stretches. Both teams are running out limited offensive weapons in the second half.
I looked at the side too. Texans -1.5 at home is defensible with the QB depth advantage and Ryans’ 7-3 SU preseason record. But preseason spreads flip on garbage-time possessions, and the total gives me the more certain path when both head coaches are wired to keep the game controlled.
The Pick: Raiders/Texans Under 38.5
