Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers
Friday, August 28, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Lambeau Field
Friday night’s preseason finale at Lambeau Field has one of the more interesting storylines on the entire Week 3 board, and the value is on the home team getting points from a road favorite that shouldn’t be laying the number.
The Cardinals are 2.5-point road favorites over the Packers with a total of 37.5. That’s an unusual setup — road favorites in preseason games are rare, and when they exist, the value is almost always on the home team getting the points. This particular game has additional layers that push that value even further.
Let’s start with the storyline that makes this game unique.
Matt LaFleur will coach against his younger brother Mike LaFleur for the first time as opposing head coaches Friday night. Matt is in his eighth year as the Packers head coach, one of the most successful coaching tenures in the modern NFL. Mike is in his first year as the Cardinals head coach, replacing the previous regime after taking over an Arizona franchise in transition. Family competitive dynamics are real, especially when the older brother has been an established NFL head coach for years and the younger brother is trying to make his mark. Matt LaFleur is going to be motivated to send his brother home with a loss.
The situational factors back up that motivation.
This is the Packers’ only home preseason game of 2026. Lambeau Field is going to be filled with fans who haven’t seen live football in Green Bay all summer. The organization has been leaning into the moment — Cheesehead TV described the atmosphere as “a home-opener buzz” and the entire fanbase has been counting down to this night. That crowd energy typically shows up on the field for home teams in preseason finales.
The team-by-team preseason performance also favors the Packers. Green Bay comes into the finale on a stronger note, having dismantled the Broncos 33-13 last Friday in Denver. Kyle McCord, the Packers’ backup quarterback, led that offense with 12 completions on 19 attempts for 118 yards. Green Bay outgained Denver 299-225 total yards and controlled the game throughout. Meanwhile, Arizona is coming off a 34-13 home loss to the Cowboys last Saturday where they were outgained 413-325 and struggled to establish any rhythm.
The Cardinals are also dealing with more roster instability. Running back Trey Benson reverted to injured reserve with a knee issue Tuesday. James Conner didn’t participate in Monday’s practice due to a foot issue. Carson Beck was limited in Monday’s practice with rib soreness. That’s three key skill-position pieces battling injuries before what’s supposed to be their “dress rehearsal” game before the regular season.
Now the coaching identity piece.
Matt LaFleur has been running a Packers program that historically excels at team defense and pass rush pressure. Green Bay’s 8 sacks in Goal to Go situations during the 2025 regular season were the most in the NFL. That’s a specific defensive strength that carries over well to preseason games where opposing backup quarterbacks are trying to sustain drives with limited protection. Cardinals backup QBs Kyle Trask, Carson Beck, and Gardner Minshew — none of whom has established himself as a reliable NFL passer — are going to be facing pressure situations against a Packers defense that specializes in exactly those spots.
Mike LaFleur’s Cardinals, meanwhile, are still building out their identity in Year 1. Arizona’s 617 passing targets in 2025 were the most in the NFL — but that’s a stat that says the offense was throwing a lot without necessarily being efficient. Backup quarterbacks trying to run a first-year head coach’s system in a hostile road environment isn’t a recipe for putting up points.
The 2.5 points might not sound like a lot, but preseason road favorites facing home dogs with strong defensive identity have historically underperformed. Combine that with Matt LaFleur’s family motivation, the Lambeau crowd, and Green Bay’s stronger recent preseason performance, and the Packers taking the points looks like the right side.
I looked at the total too. Both teams are likely to sit starters in the finale, and both defenses have shown they can suppress backup offenses. There’s a case for the Under. But the side has the clearer read given the situational factors and the value of getting points at Lambeau.
The Pick: Green Bay Packers +2.5
