The NASCAR Cup Series Chase begins Sunday evening at Darlington Raceway with the Cook Out Southern 500, where Denny Hamlin, Chris Buescher, and Erik Jones headline this week’s betting picks and value predictions.
Cook Out Southern 500 Picks
Date: Sunday, September 6, 2026
Track: Darlington Raceway
Time: 5:00 PM ET
Channel: USA
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Well, it was a slim chance that they’d get out of Daytona without too much trouble. That plan was ultimately foiled several times over but most notably at the end of the race on the last lap, leaving Ryan Preece in the position that he needed the most. Preece won with a 0.024 second margin over second place giving him his first ever Cup Series win and a berth into the Cup Series Chase. It was an unforgettable win for Preece, who battled back from issues in the first stage with fender damage resulting from a three car wreck. It was dicey with fuel mileage at the end too, but Preece and the #60 team never gave up. They gave it everything that they had in overtime and charged passed Reddick and Zane Smith in excellent timing before Smith miscalculated and caused a series of wrecks in his wake. Preece was at the point in the moment of caution, leaving him exactly where he needed to be when it mattered most.
For SVG, it was a big blow. After a season filled with dominating performances on the road courses and continued improvement on the ovals, the 4 tire call towards the end of the race was wrong in my opinion. He went from leading Preece by 31 points coming into the race to Preece coming out ahead by 17 when all was said and done. SVG was the winner of stage 1 to add insult to injury. That late race call for the 4 tires put him in a bad spot, making him unable to say out of the impending wreck. Daniel Suarez ended up in a much better spot, coming home second and moving forward into the Chase. He was followed by Tyler Reddick, Michael McDowell, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. for the top 5. Austin Cindric, Austin Dillon, Alex Bowman, Josh Berry, and Cole Custer rounded out the top 10 spots. Most impressive was Berry, posting his 5th consecutive top 10 finish in the #21 Ford. He’s showing us that he’s not finished yet. Someone give this man a shot for next year!
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
As Berry continues on his dominating journey in hopes of securing a 2027 contract, he will have his work cut out for him as the drivers and teams head into Darlington this weekend. This is a track for the veterans and the drivers with tenure. Darlington is a 1.366 mile asphalt oval with an egg shape. It has 25 degrees of banking in turns 1 and 2 with 23 degrees through 3 and 4. Both straights come in at 6 degrees. It’s a highly abrasive track with the preferred groove right at the wall making it one of the most challenging tracks in the drivers’ books. If you don’t walk away with a Darlington stripe, you’re one of the lucky ones.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner, this track tends to easily take out the younger drivers and gives the veterans a lot of grief in their own right. Because of the aggressive tire wear, it takes a lot of skill to maintain the equipment, stay in the racing groove, and stay out front. Dirty air will quickly ruin front grip for anyone trailing the leader or looking to pass on this track. Current NASCAR betting odds are available at Bovada. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into Sunday’s first race of the Chase:
Winner: Denny Hamlin (+400)
With 5 wins and an average finish between 7 and 8, Hamlin very clearly leads active drivers in ability to maneuver this place. He’s heading into this race as the points leader and still chasing the elusive championship. Will Darlington play nice? Denny has a great shot this weekend if he can get along with this track on Sunday evening.
Mid-Range Pick: Chris Buescher (+2000)
In these high wear tracks, Buescher is consistent in top finishes. He also has a strong run of recent top 10s at Darlington. With his success this year thus far and with the gears shifting heading into the Chase, look for Buescher and team to regroup and be in contention for the win this weekend.
Dark Horse: Erik Jones (+2500)
Jones performs well at Darlington almost every time he shows up. This is one of his best tracks, in fact. He has an impressive 12.6 career average finish. Jones also has 2 wins here. Erik will be playing to win this weekend, with wins being the only thing that matter moving forward.
Chase Field Heading Into Darlington
Jones was shy of making the Chase this year, settling for 21st when it all played out. Our top 16 are set to battle for the championship beginning this weekend at Darlington. Here are your Chase contenders as we head into this Sunday evening’s race:
1. Denny Hamlin
2. Ryan Blaney
3. Tyler Reddick
4. Ty Gibbs
5. Chase Briscoe
6. Christopher Bell
7. Kyle Larson
8. Chase Elliott
9. Joey Logano
10. Chris Buescher
11. Daniel Suarez
12. Carson Hocevar
13. William Byron
14. Bubba Wallace
15. Austin Cindric
16. Ryan Preece
As we head into the final stretch of racing for the 2026 season, drivers and teams are going to regroup and re-strategize. Up to this point, strategies were focused on making the Chase. Now, they’re focused on the championship. For Denny, this is another big one. He has yet to see this come to fruition despite multiple years of close calls. Will Denny finally be able to take the championship trophy home? It starts this weekend. Let’s see how he fares at the Lady in Black as the teams head into Darlington!
