Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, September 13, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point home favorite over the Falcons with a total of 42.5. My play is the Under.
Two things about this game make the Under the cleanest read on the board. The head-to-head history and the quarterback matchup.
The head-to-head numbers first. The Under has hit in 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams. That’s a specific pattern of games playing under, and it holds up whether the teams have been good or bad in any given year. When two organizations meet with any regularity and consistently produce Unders, there’s usually a stylistic reason — both play conservative, both prioritize defense, both feature quarterbacks who don’t push tempo. All of that applies here.
Now the quarterback piece. Aaron Rodgers finished 22nd in EPA per play last season among 30 quarterbacks who logged 320 or more plays. He’s 42 years old. He publicly called this his final NFL season. He’s not the Rodgers who was throwing 40-yard bombs on a whim — he’s a savvy veteran who takes what defenses give him and doesn’t force plays that aren’t there. Rodgers offenses in his career-late years tend to be efficient, methodical, and time-consuming. Not high-scoring.
The BEST 2026 Football Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
Tua Tagovailoa is on the other side and it’s actually worse. He ranked 26th in EPA per play last year — one of the least productive starting quarterbacks in the league. He struggled significantly in joint practices and preseason with the Falcons. Kevin Stefanski named him the starter this week, but multiple reports indicate the decision was made reluctantly — Stefanski was holding out hope Michael Penix Jr. could go instead. Penix is still recovering from a torn ACL suffered last November and only returned to 11-on-11 work in the final week of August. He told the team he wasn’t ready. So Tua gets the call by default, not because the coaching staff has full confidence in him.
That’s not the profile of an offense that scores 24+ points in Week 1 on the road against a Steelers defense that produced 27 takeaways last year (4th in the NFL). Pittsburgh’s defense will pressure Tua, force him to make quick decisions, and probably create a turnover or two. That doesn’t inflate the total — it deflates it. Short fields for the Steelers, but also stalled drives and punts for the Falcons.
The Steelers offensive side won’t push the total either. Rodgers had one of the worst per-play efficiency numbers in the league last year. Even with Aaron Rodgers in a competent scheme with real weapons, Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t the type that hangs 30. They ground out 20 to 24 points in most home games last year. That’s their template.
Realistic scores in this game are Steelers 20, Falcons 13 or Steelers 23, Falcons 17. Both cash the Under.
The one concern is a defensive touchdown or special teams score that inflates the total without either offense doing the work. That’s a real risk with a defense that generates 27 takeaways. But even factoring in a scoop-and-score or a pick-six, the projected combined offensive output is still low enough that the total stays under.
The Pick: Falcons/Steelers Under 42.5. Bet your Week 1 NFL predictions for FREE by scoring a massive 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you use bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!
