Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 13, 2026
4:25 PM ET, U.S. Bank Stadium
Minnesota is a 1.5-point home favorite over Green Bay with a total of 46.5. My play is the Under.
Two things pointed me here. The recent head-to-head history and the Packers’ injury report.
Both meetings between these teams last year stayed under the number. The totals were 41.5 in one game and 36.5 in the other — both went Under. That’s not a coincidence. Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings play a defense that blitzed at the highest rate in the NFL last season, and Green Bay tends to respond by shortening the game, running the ball, and keeping possession. The result is games that finish in the 30s or low 40s. The current 46.5 total is already higher than either of last year’s meetings, but the style of football hasn’t changed.
Now add the Packers’ injury situation.
Josh Jacobs is out. He’s on the Commissioner’s Exempt List for Week 1, meaning MarShawn Lloyd handles lead-back duties for a Packers offense that leaned heavily on Jacobs last year. That’s a significant downgrade at running back and shifts more of the offensive load to Jordan Love. Micah Parsons is also out. Green Bay’s marquee offseason acquisition — the $188 million pass rusher — is on the PUP list with a knee injury. That leaves Green Bay without their best pass rusher, meaning Kyler Murray gets cleaner pockets to work in. But Kyler Murray is also brand new to the Vikings’ offense and this is his first game running Kevin O’Connell’s scheme, which brings its own execution issues.
Then there’s the offensive line. Both Aaron Banks and Zach Bako-Bewele have been limited throughout training camp with knee injuries and missed every preseason game. Green Bay’s offensive line is not in Week 1 shape. Against a Vikings defense that blitzes at the highest rate in the league, that’s a specific mismatch that produces sacks, three-and-outs, and stalled drives — all of which suppress point totals.
Jordan Love has struggled specifically under pressure. His numbers when pressured last year were ugly: 41.6% completion percentage, 5.0 yards per target. Against a Vikings blitz that’s coming from every angle behind a compromised offensive line, Love is going to face pressure on a high percentage of dropbacks. That translates to third-and-long situations, punts, and offensive stalling — which fits directly into the historical Under trend.
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Vikings’ overall betting profile also supports the play. Under went 8-2 in the Vikings’ last 10 games of 2025. That’s not just a season-ending trend — that’s the identity Kevin O’Connell has built. The Vikings’ defense is disruptive, their offense is methodical, and games involving them consistently produce lower totals than the market expects.
Kyler Murray is a wild card. He arrives with a career record of 38-48-1 from his Cardinals tenure and 13 game-winning drives. He’s talented but he’s also breaking in a new system, and Week 1 games with new quarterbacks in new offenses rarely produce explosive scoring. He may hit some deep shots. He may also throw two interceptions. But the offensive rhythm won’t be fully there.
Realistic scores in this game: Vikings 24, Packers 20 (44 total), or Vikings 21, Packers 17 (38 total), or even a straight-up Green Bay upset like Packers 23, Vikings 20 (43 total). All Under 46.5. For the Over to hit, we need both teams to score 24+, which requires Green Bay’s offense to click despite the injuries and Kyler Murray to look immediately comfortable in his first Vikings game. Both are unlikely.
The Pick: Packers/Vikings Under 46.5. Bet your Week GB/Min predictions for FREE by scoring a massive 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you use bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!
