Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Pick and Analysis
I can’t believe I’m doing this.
I’m actually betting ON the New York Giants.
Growing up in New Jersey, I grew to hate all the local New York teams, Jets, Giants, Yankees and especially the Mets.
There was no cable TV back then which means you’re viewing choice was no choice at all – other than Monday night Football I got to see the Giants games and the Jets games, and nothing else.
No entertainment for a young Seahawk fan.
And in those days there was no Amazon and there were no sports superstores. As an Oriole fan, if I wanted an Oriole hat or jersey I had to wait till they came to Yankee stadium to buy one.
The local stores only carried merchandise for local teams.
So, based on my limited choice for merchandise and TV viewing – hence my hatred for the Giants, Yankees, etc.
Yes, that’s how it really was in the old days, there was an extremely limited selection on TV and for team merchandise in stores.
And yes, by disclosing this, I am revealing that I’m old.
(How do you determine if you’re old or not?
The simple question – can you sleep through the night without getting up at least once to pee? If yes, you’re young regardless of your date of birth. If not, you’re old.)
But I digress.
For the previous two seasons I made only one NFL Regular Season Wins bet.
Both times I took the Giants Under.
And I won both times.
I can’t believe I’m betting ON them to actually win a game on Sunday.
Regardless of any handicapping numbers, I have a leftover habit from my youth when I could only see Jets and Giants games on local TV – I prefer to bet against both New York teams.
One of my handicapping models for choosing Wrong Favorites says New York should be the Fav in their home opener against the Cowboys. Obviously I have no data to go on yet, New England qualified on Wednesday night but that game ended in a Push.
And a quick check of last year’s numbers show that WF1, both Hm and Rd games, finished at about .500, which means no value betting ON or AGAINST them.
There is a commonly known handicapping theory that says “Take division Hm Dogs in Week One” that supposedly hits better than 60%. I don’t know if it’s true or not and I can’t take the time to dig through the data as college football took up most of my handicapping time these past few mornings.
Hopefully, it’s correct.
And there’s this – if you’re going to bet the Giants better to do it early in the season because some time in the not so distant future Dart is going to get hurt just like he always does, and it will be the end of the Giant’s season.
And speaking of getting older as I was a couple paragraphs ago, Dak Prescott enters the season as a weary 33 year old. And like Dart, is unlikely to make it through the season playing all 17 games.
Without much else to go on in regards to my stats and handicapping models, I’ll take:
The team with the younger quarterback
The team with the new head coach.
The team with the better head coach.
And the team with what should prove to be the better defense.
All of that, plus I’m getting a full FG at Hm.
Coach Harbaugh will no doubt try to ground it out with a running game, controlling the clock and limiting mistakes. If he’s successful, taking the points is the way to go.
I can’t believe I’m doing this but I’m betting on the New York Giants this week.
My play: NY +3
