New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
AL Division Series Game 2
Monday, October 5, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Tropicana Field
The Yankees are road favorites at -130 in Game 2 of the ALDS after dropping Game 1. The Rays sit at +110 on the moneyline. The total is 6.5. My play is the Under 6.5.
Cam Schlittler is the entry point here. The Yankees’ Game 2 starter went 14-6 with a 1.95 ERA, and he’s been even better away from home, posting a major league-best 1.16 road ERA with a 0.74 WHIP, a .153 opponents’ batting average and 129 strikeouts. In his postseason debut against Boston, he threw 6.1 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts in the Yankees’ 9-0 win. He has a 2.81 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay this year with 21 strikeouts in 16 innings.
Freddy Peralta is pitching at the same level right now. His season numbers (10-11, 4.42 ERA) don’t reflect what he’s been since the Rays acquired him from the Mets at the deadline. Peralta went 5-0 after the trade, posted a 0.79 ERA over his final six starts as the Rays won all six, and has a 1.69 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in four starts at Tropicana Field. That’s a pitcher who ended the regular season locked in.
Game 1 set the tone. Drew Rasmussen held the Yankees without a hit through 7⅔ innings, and Jonathan Aranda’s solo homer was the only run in a 1-0 Rays win. New York didn’t record its first hit until the eighth inning. Two days later, the Yankees face another pitcher on a roll in the same building, while Tampa Bay faces the best road starter in baseball.
The risk to the Under is Ben Rice. He posted a 1.320 OPS with seven homers against Tampa Bay in 51 plate appearances this season, nearly double his home run total against any other opponent. One swing from Rice could change this game. But with both starters capable of going six innings and both lineups facing pitchers who are at their best right now, this sets up as another tight, low-scoring game. The Yankees will need to break through against Peralta, and the Rays will need to do something few teams have managed against Schlittler on the road.
Realistic outcomes: Yankees 3, Rays 2 (5 total); Rays 3, Yankees 2 (5 total); Yankees 2, Rays 1 (3 total); or Yankees 4, Rays 3 (7 total, over). Three of four scenarios stay under 6.5.
The Pick: Yankees/Rays Game 2 Under 6.5
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