NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Picks
Date: Sunday, November 8th, 2026
Track: Homestead-Miami Speedway
Time: 3pm ET
Channel: NBC
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Willie B finally got that elusive win he’s been searching for in the 2026 season this weekend after a dominating performance at Martinsville Speedway! Out of 500 laps, Byron conquered 362. That was a career best for him in terms of laps led during a Cup race in his 9 year span. He claimed a 2.049 second victory over teammate Chase Elliott, making a strong showing for HMS here at the end of the season. Elliott was our Spring winner but has failed to capitalize throughout the year, rarely dominating like we’ve seen in the past. In fact, it was a common theme for the Hendrick drivers, really struggling to show up with consistent cars throughout the year. It seems like they’ve locked in here at the end of the season, finally finding the Chevrolet performance that eluded much of the teams in 2026.
It has seemed to be a Toyota-fest for a good portion of the 2026 season, but Chevy has found the magic touch as we close out our Chase. Three Chevrolets rounded out the top 5 positions, with Shane Van Gisbergen securing another strong top 5 finish on an oval track. It’s been a great year for him and their team, really committing to getting better on the ovals rather than just showing up for the road courses. Ty Gibbs came home 3rd, the best of the Toyotas, with Josh Berry coming in a very respectable 4th place for the best of the Fords. The remainder of the top 10 were a mix of Chevys and Toyotas, with Ford’s next best finish coming in at 15th with Todd Gilliland. Denny Hamlin, Austin Dillon, Bubba Wallace, Kyle Larson, and Christopher Bell were the remainder of the top 10 finishers.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, we are closing out a hard-fought season, but a Chase dominated by none other than Kyle Larson. He will have to finish stage 1 in the top 10 and he will pretty much walk away with the championship regardless of what happens after the fact. Homestead is a great track for him too, so we’ll have to see if he can swing a win and championship on the same day. Homestead is a very cookie-cutter intermediate track. This 1.5-mile oval has progressive 18-20 degrees of banking in the turns and 4 degrees on the straights. Track position is everything! For Larson, the configuration falls right into his hands. It’s a high-line track, so Larson is going to have fun. The key factor in these high-line tracks is tire degradation, so while riding the wall tends to be the fastest way around, you can expect for tires to start wearing pretty quickly on the abrasive asphalt, leaving debris in the high groove. Ultimately, we’re going to see lap times slow down as the race progresses, and the teams will be tasked with finding the best way to manage tires and throttle. The high line won’t be the only groove. As rubber lays down, many grooves will start to shape up, but that high line will likely still be preferred.
Odds and Value Picks
When it comes to picking a winner, well, this is one of those races that we can’t not pick Larson. With this track literally falling into his hands in terms of driving style, he’s going to be able to easily navigate around as a good wheelman. His team needs to give him speed and accuracy in pit stops. If they can nail that combination, there’s no doubt that Larson will not only win the race, but he will easily secure his championship. With Larson basically requiring a meteor to hit the track to not win the championship, the other drivers won’t go out that easily. This is the last opportunity for drivers to earn a win for the 2026 season, so you best believe there will be some fighting going on. Let’s take a look at your potential winners heading into Homestead. Current NASCAR betting odds are available at Bovada.
Winner: Kyle Larson (+500)
Larson is great here. He has led 645 laps at Miami, the most of all active drivers. In 12 starts, he has 2 wins with his last coming in March 2025. Larson also has 6 top 5s and 6 top 10s. If he can come with the speed, Larson will be close to unstoppable this weekend after what we’ve seen so far from him in the Chase.
Mid-Range: Bubba Wallace (+2500)
Wallace is a solid pick here and he’s not done yet. He’s had a rough few weeks and is looking for some relief from the chaos. With an average 9.0 finish in his last 3 starts, he has 1 top 5 and 2 top 10s. With 23XI Racing having great frontline speed this year, Wallace should be in good shape to have a strong finish. This will likely be one of his better finishes and a good opportunity to go out strongly.
Dark Horse: AJ Allmendinger (+20000)
Allmendinger is a strong dark horse this week with one of the best average finishes in the field. At 6.7, two top 5s, and 4 top 10s in his last 4 starts, Allmendinger is no one to forget about. He has a knack for managing tire wear on longer green flag runs, which this track models. Look for Allmendinger to be in the front of the pack all day long.
Points Picture Heading Into Homestead
The points are pretty much a lost cause, with Larson still 67 points above second place. Let’s take a final look at our top 16 drivers heading into the Championship weekend:
Current Standings Snapshot:
1. Kyle Larson
2. Christopher Bell
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Chase Briscoe
5. Joey Logano
6. Tyler Reddick
7. Ryan Blaney
8. Ty Gibbs
9. William Byron
10. Chase Elliott
11. Austin Cindric
12. Bubba Wallace
13. Carson Hocevar
14. Ryan Preece
15. Daniel Suarez
16. Chris Buescher
Of note, Spire pulled Carson Hocevar out of the #77 for the weekend after his shenanigans at Martinsville. Quite frankly, from a fan standpoint, I think it’s a dumb move. I get it from a business perspective…I guess. Regardless, JJ Yeley will be driving, so there’s that. Denny Hamlin fell to third in the points despite his best efforts after a challenging race at Martinsville. It was another year for Hamlin that just wasn’t meant to be. Maybe 2027 will show him some grace. For now, we will wait and see how easily Larson is able to walk away with this championship for 2026. Will he win the race too? Stay tuned for the closeout celebration of a fantastic 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season!
