Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
NL Division Series Game 3
Tuesday, October 6, 2026
9:30 PM ET, Petco Park
The Padres are home favorites at -133 in Game 3 of the NLDS as they face elimination. The Brewers sit at +113 on the moneyline looking to close out the series. The total is 7. My play is the Padres at -133.
The pitching matchup favors San Diego. Dustin May gets the ball for Milwaukee, and he hasn’t been the same pitcher since the trade deadline. May went 7-9 with a 4.70 ERA overall and posted a 5.65 ERA across 10 starts after joining the Brewers. He does have a strong track record against this lineup, with a 1.23 ERA in three starts against San Diego this year, and that’s the biggest reason to respect him here. But the version of May who pitched for Milwaukee down the stretch has been far more hittable.
Nick Pivetta is heading the other way. He returned from an elbow injury in September and has a 1.64 ERA across five starts since coming back, with 18 strikeouts in four September outings. He went 3-2 with a 2.86 ERA overall. Pivetta also started Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, a 4-1 win that sent San Diego past the Cubs. He’s pitching like a playoff starter, and he gets to do it at home.
The Padres have been one swing away in both games of this series. Milwaukee won Game 1 3-2 on a William Contreras seventh-inning homer. San Diego led Game 2 3-2 entering the bottom of the ninth before Mason Miller, after striking out the first batter, walked Christian Yelich and Sal Frelick, and Jackson Chourio delivered a two-out, two-strike, two-run walk-off single. Both losses came by a single run, and the Padres held a lead late in the second. This is not a team that’s been outclassed.
Home field matters too. San Diego went 53-30 at Petco Park this season, one of the best home records in baseball, and the Padres’ offense has a hot bat at the top in Ty France, who’s 7-for-15 this postseason. Craig Stammen’s team gets an off day and a home crowd before trying to extend the series.
The risk is Milwaukee’s bullpen and Chourio. The Brewers’ relievers have thrown nine scoreless innings in this series, and Chourio has a .958 OPS and the biggest hit of the postseason so far. If May gives Milwaukee five decent innings, the Brewers’ bullpen can protect a lead. But May has struggled since the trade, and Pivetta has been sharp since his return. That’s the matchup the Padres needed at home.
Realistic outcomes: Padres 5, Brewers 2 (Padres win); Padres 4, Brewers 2 (Padres win); Padres 3, Brewers 2 (Padres win); or Brewers 4, Padres 2 (Brewers win). Three of four scenarios go San Diego’s way.
The Pick: San Diego Padres ML -133
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