Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
AL Division Series Game 3
Wednesday, October 7, 2026
4:00 PM ET, Rate Field
The White Sox are home favorites at -120 in Game 3 of the ALDS with a chance to close out the series. The Guardians sit at +100 facing elimination. The total is 7.5. My play is the White Sox at -120.
Cleveland’s offense is the entry point here. The Guardians have scored just three runs on seven hits through two games. They were shut out on three hits in Game 1, when they loaded the bases with two outs in back-to-back innings and came away with nothing. In Game 2, two of their three runs came in the first inning on errors and a chopper. José Ramírez is 0-for-6 in the series. Gavin Williams struck out 11 in Game 2 and Cleveland still lost, because the offense gave him nothing after the first inning.
Chicago’s pitching plan has handled this lineup. Sean Newcomb gets the ball for Game 3, and he’s posted a 2.61 ERA in nine appearances against Cleveland this season, with a 3.09 ERA overall. Behind him is the same bullpen that has carried the White Sox all October. In Game 2, Sean Burke threw 5⅓ innings of one-hit relief with six strikeouts, and Grant Taylor closed it out for his second save of the series. Will Venable’s staff has allowed three runs in 18 innings to this Guardians lineup.
Cleveland is turning to rookie Daniel Espino as an opener, with Joey Cantillo available behind him. Espino has a 4.11 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in a small sample of 15.1 big-league innings, allowing seven earned runs on 12 hits. Asking a rookie to open an elimination game on the road is a tough spot, and Chicago’s lineup has already shown it can make Cleveland’s bullpen pay. In Game 2, the White Sox rallied for three runs in the sixth inning off the Guardians’ relievers, with Braden Montgomery’s two-run double putting them ahead for good.
The White Sox are rolling at home. Chicago went 48-33 at Rate Field this season and is 8-2 in its last 10 games, outscoring opponents by 25 runs. A win sends the White Sox to the ALCS for the first time since 2005.
The risk is that Cleveland’s bats wake up. This is still an 85-win team with Steven Kwan and Chase DeLauter at the top of the order, and one big inning could extend the series. But the Guardians haven’t put together a rally in 18 innings, and Chicago’s pitching keeps finding ways to shut them down.
Realistic outcomes: White Sox 4, Guardians 2 (White Sox clinch); White Sox 5, Guardians 3 (White Sox clinch); Guardians 3, White Sox 2 (Guardians force Game 4); or Guardians 4, White Sox 1 (Guardians force Game 4). The White Sox have the pitching edge and the home crowd behind them in a clinching spot.
The Pick: Chicago White Sox ML -120
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