Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
AL Division Series Game 3
Wednesday, October 7, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Yankee Stadium
The Yankees are home favorites at -160 in Game 3 of the ALDS with their season on the line. The Rays are +134 as they try to finish a sweep. The total is 7. My play is the Yankees at -160.
Tampa Bay has earned its 2-0 lead. Drew Rasmussen took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of Game 1 and struck out 10. Austin Wells broke it up with a two-out double, the only Yankees hit of the night. Jonathan Aranda’s solo homer off Gerrit Cole decided a 1-0 game. In Game 2, New York committed four errors, three of them in the first inning, and the Rays won 5-2. Cam Schlittler was chased during a four-run fifth, and only two of the five Tampa runs were earned. Ben Rice hit two solo homers and drove in both New York runs.
Max Fried gets the ball for New York. He posted a 2.80 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 20 starts, with 104 strikeouts in 112.1 innings. He was sharp in his only October start so far, allowing one run over six innings in the Wild Card Game 2 win over Boston. His two regular-season starts against Tampa Bay were rougher: seven runs on 12 hits in 14.2 innings. That’s the risk in this play. Fried’s command at home in a must-win spot is the reason to back him anyway.
Nick Martinez starts for the Rays. He went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. He was better on the road than at home this season, which is a big reason Tampa Bay lined him up for the Bronx. He’s a tough draw, and the Yankees will need to grind out at-bats against a pitcher who doesn’t beat himself.
The offense has to show up, and Yankee Stadium is where it has. New York went 46-34 at home and scored 18 runs in its two home games against Boston in the Wild Card round. The lineup is playing without Aaron Judge, who has been out since straining his right calf in mid-September. That puts more on Rice (41 home runs this season), Jazz Chisholm Jr. and George Lombard Jr., who has 11 hits in his last 39 at-bats with three homers. One hit in Game 1 and two solo shots in Game 2 is not what this lineup looks like over a full season, and a return home is the best spot for it to turn around.
The defense also has to be better, and it almost has to be. Four errors in one postseason game is an outlier for any club. Clean up the glove work, and Game 2 looks like a one-run game.
There is one wrinkle. Fried’s girlfriend is due with their child soon, and if he’s unavailable, Carlos Rodón moves up from Game 4. That isn’t a bad fallback. Rodón blanked Tampa Bay over eight innings on three hits in a 2-0 win on September 22.
The Yankees need three straight wins. The first one starts at home with a lefty who has kept runners off base all year and an offense that is due. Back New York to force a Game 4.
The Pick: New York Yankees ML -160
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