Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
NL Division Series Game 4
Wednesday, October 7, 2026
10:00 PM ET, Petco Park
The Padres are slight home favorites at -115 in Game 4 of the NLDS as they try to stay alive. The Brewers are -105 with a chance to close the series out. The total is 7.5. My play is the Padres at -115.
Start with Milwaukee’s history away from home in October. The Brewers have lost 12 straight postseason road games dating back to the 2018 NLCS. Game 3 extended the streak. San Diego was 50-30 at Petco Park this season, and the Padres just showed what that building can do in a tight game.
Game 3 was a grinder. San Diego manufactured two runs in the third when Samad Taylor and Jackson Merrill both singled, stole second and came around to score. Jake Cronenworth homered in the fifth, and Xander Bogaerts scored on a wild pitch in the sixth. Michael King closed it out with two scoreless innings on one day of rest after throwing 72 pitches in his Game 2 start. The final out was a 107 mph Christian Yelich liner that Bogaerts smothered on a short hop. He stepped on second and threw to first to end it. Milwaukee stranded 11 runners in the 4-3 loss.
Walker Buehler gets the ball for San Diego. His regular season was uneven, going 9-6 with a 4.63 ERA. October is a different story. Buehler has a 3.04 ERA across 18 career postseason starts, all with the Dodgers, and he’s 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA in four career starts against Milwaukee. He missed Games 1 and 2 while on the paternity list, so he comes in fresh.
Milwaukee doesn’t have a clear plan on the mound. Pat Murphy named lefties Robert Gasser and Shane Drohan and righty Chad Patrick as options, and a bullpen game is on the table. Patrick was effective out of the pen last October, allowing two runs over nine innings with 11 strikeouts, but asking relievers to cover nine innings on the road is a tall order. A bullpen game also leaves Milwaukee’s late-inning arms thinner if Game 4 stays close.
San Diego’s own bullpen gets stronger tonight. Closer Mason Miller missed Game 3 on the paternity list, and setup man Adrian Morejón sat out with a shoulder issue. Both are expected to be available for Game 4. King is probably off limits after two straight high-stress outings, but getting Miller and Morejón back more than covers his absence. If Buehler gives San Diego five or six solid innings, the Padres have the arms to finish it.
All three games in this series have been decided by one run. In a game that figures to be close again, the edge goes to the team with a known starter, a rested closer and home field.
The Brewers can still win this. Their lineup put 11 runners on base in Game 3 and only needed one more hit. Yelich drove in a run for the first time in 20 postseason games, and William Contreras homered. If Buehler’s regular-season version shows up, Milwaukee has enough bats to end it tonight. I’ll take the Padres to force a Game 5.
The Pick: San Diego Padres ML -115
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