Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 11, 2026
9:30 AM ET, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)
Jacksonville is a 4.5-point favorite over Philadelphia with a total of 43.5 for this neutral-site game in London. My play is the Under 43.5.
Jacksonville’s defense sets the tone. The Jaguars allow the third-fewest points per game in the NFL and rank seventh in defensive EPA per play. They’re also third in fewest rushing yards allowed, which matters against an Eagles offense built around the run. Last week they held Cincinnati to 17 points in a 22-17 road win to move to 3-1.
Philadelphia’s offense is stuck. The Eagles rank 28th in EPA per play, 30th in success rate and 29th in yards per play. In last week’s 24-20 loss to the Rams, they went 0-for-12 on third down and blew a 10-point lead in the closing minutes. Jalen Hurts averaged 3.4 yards per attempt in that game, and he’s at 6.3 for the season. Philadelphia is 2-2 straight up and 0-4 against the spread, the only team in the league without a cover.
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The Eagles’ injury report makes it worse. Saquon Barkley (hamstring), DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dallas Goedert (knee) are all questionable, and Lane Johnson is on the list too. Even if some of them play, Philadelphia’s playmakers won’t be at full strength against a front that has shut down the run all season. An offense that can’t move the chains doesn’t pile up points, and it gives Jacksonville extra possessions without many short fields.
The risk is on the Jacksonville side. The Jaguars’ offense has been efficient under Liam Coen. Trevor Lawrence is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, and Jacksonville is 3-1 against the spread. A couple of quick scores from Lawrence could push this past the number on their own. The counter is how the Jaguars have actually won. They led Cincinnati 13-3 at halftime and then ground out the second half in a penalty-filled game. They don’t need to run up the score to beat a team that can’t convert third downs.
The Under fits the matchup. A top-three scoring defense faces one of the least productive offenses in the league, with several of that offense’s best players banged up. A 24-17 type of game is the most likely outcome, and that leaves room under 43.5.
The Pick: Eagles/Jaguars Under 43.5
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