New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Sunday, October 11, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Northwest Stadium
Washington is a 3.5-point home favorite over the Giants with a total of 43.5. My play is the Giants getting the points.
The Giants have been the better team. New York is 3-1 straight up and against the spread in John Harbaugh’s first season, and it leads the NFC East. Jameis Winston has won back-to-back starts, including last week’s 36-24 win over Arizona, where he threw three touchdowns. Washington is 1-3 and has gone 2-5 straight up over its last seven games.
Washington’s defense has been the bigger problem. The Commanders have allowed 30 or more points in three straight games and are giving up 30.5 points per game. Last week Indianapolis beat them 30-13. That gives Winston a matchup he can exploit, and the Giants offense has shown it can score in bunches.
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Jayden Daniels’ return is why the line moved. Washington opened as a 3-point favorite and moved to 3.5 once Dan Quinn said Daniels was expected to practice in full. Daniels has missed two games with a dislocated elbow and is expected to play through it, with offseason surgery a possibility. He has been on the field for less than two full games this season, completing 29 of 51 passes for 260 yards and three touchdowns. He is clearly an upgrade over Athan Kaliakmanis, who went 15 of 33 for 186 yards last week. Still, a quarterback playing through an elbow injury against a defense tied for the league lead with six interceptions is a lot to ask.
The hook matters. The move from 3 to 3.5 puts the most common NFL margin on the Giants’ side. If Washington wins by a field goal, +3.5 cashes, and the Giants can also win outright.
The risk is history and Daniels. Washington has won four straight in this series, including 21-6 and 29-21 last season. If Daniels looks like himself from the first snap, the Commanders’ offense changes overnight. But this is a different Giants team under Harbaugh, and Washington’s defense hasn’t given any reason to trust it as a favorite of more than a field goal.
The Pick: New York Giants +3.5
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