Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
Sunday, October 11, 2026
1:00 PM ET, MetLife Stadium
The Jets are 1.5-point home favorites over the Browns with a total of 39.5. My play is the Browns getting the points.
The better team is getting points. Cleveland is 3-1 and in first place in the AFC North. New York is 1-3 and has lost three straight since its opening win over Tennessee. The Browns are also 3-1 against the spread and have covered three in a row. A road dog with the better record, the better form and the better quarterback play is worth backing at this price.
Deshaun Watson has found his footing under Todd Monken. After a rough opener, Watson has led a game-winning drive in three straight games. The latest was a late field-goal drive to beat Pittsburgh on Thursday night in Week 4. Monken’s offense has kept Watson efficient and avoided the turnovers that sank him in past seasons. Cleveland finds ways to win close games, and this line suggests another close one.
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The Jets’ offense is in trouble. New York managed 157 total yards and 12 points in last week’s 23-12 loss to Chicago. The Jets didn’t convert a single third down, and Geno Smith was under pressure on 53% of his dropbacks. Breece Hall is week-to-week with a quad injury, and tight end Mason Taylor and receiver Adonai Mitchell are on the same list. Aaron Glenn’s team doesn’t have many playmakers healthy to take advantage of the matchup.
Cleveland’s defense is built to hold this offense down. The Browns have held each of their last two opponents under 100 rushing yards. Without Hall, the Jets would have to lean on Smith, and a quarterback getting pressured on more than half his dropbacks is a bad bet to carry an offense. The Browns don’t need many points to win a game with a total this low.
The risk is the Browns’ secondary. Cleveland allowed three touchdown passes last week, and the Jets are good enough at home to win a one-score game if Smith gets time. But the Jets haven’t shown that in weeks, and Cleveland has been the more reliable team late in games. Take the Browns and the points, and don’t be surprised if they win outright.
The Pick: Cleveland Browns +1.5
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