Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Monday, October 12, 2026
8:15 PM ET, SoFi Stadium (MNF)
Los Angeles is a 3.5-point home favorite over Buffalo with a total of 54.5. My play is the Under.
Sean McVay’s teams play low-scoring games in this spot. The Under is 29-14 when the Rams are home favorites of seven points or fewer under McVay. That’s a 43-game sample, and tonight’s line fits it exactly. A total of 54.5 is one of the highest on the Week 5 board, and it asks two good defenses to give up a lot of points.
The Rams’ defense is the best unit in this game. Los Angeles ranks third in the NFL in EPA per play allowed. Buffalo brings the No. 2 offense in EPA per play behind Josh Allen, so something has to give. The Rams’ defense has been the steadier group all season while the offense works through a 2-2 start, including a shaky win over the Eagles last week.
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The Rams will try to run and shorten the game. Los Angeles averages 126.8 rushing yards per game, 11th in the league, and Buffalo ranks 18th against the run at 116 yards allowed per game. The Bills are also expected to be without defensive tackle Ed Oliver. A steady dose of Kyren Williams keeps the clock moving and keeps Allen on the sideline, and fewer Buffalo possessions is the best way to keep this total down.
The risk is Buffalo’s offense and its recent games. The Bills have gone Over in three of four games under Joe Brady, and they just lost 29-26 to New England. The weakness is their defense, and cornerback Maxwell Hairston has struggled in coverage. Matthew Stafford has Puka Nacua and Davante Adams to work with, so the Rams can score too. If Allen hits a couple of big plays early, this can become a shootout fast. But the number is already high, and the McVay home trend has held for years. A 27-20 type of game is the most likely result, and that leaves room under 54.5.
The Pick: Under 54.5
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