Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams Player Props
Monday, October 12, 2026
8:15 PM ET, SoFi Stadium
The Rams host the Bills on Monday Night Football, and the prop board is deep. The game script I expect is a Rams team that leans on the run to keep Josh Allen on the sideline, with Matthew Stafford picking on a Buffalo pass defense that ranks 27th in the league. My game pick is the Under 54.5, but these props stand on their own whether the total hits or not.
Here are my four favorites, plus a long shot.
Puka Nacua Over 90 Receiving Yards (-140)
Nacua is back and Buffalo can’t cover. He missed two games with a hip injury and came back last week with nine catches on 12 targets for 125 yards against the Eagles, plus a rushing touchdown. That was after just one catch in the first half, so the volume came quickly once the Rams got him going. Buffalo allows 274 passing yards per game, ranks 29th in defensive EPA per play and has given up the fourth-most passing touchdowns in the league. The Bills will also be without Ed Oliver, which takes away interior pressure that could disrupt Stafford’s quick game. With Davante Adams on the other side, Buffalo can’t commit extra coverage to Nacua without leaving a mismatch somewhere else.
Matthew Stafford Under 9.5 Rushing Yards
Stafford doesn’t run. He’s 38 years old and works almost entirely from the pocket. When he does leave it, it’s usually to throw the ball away or take a short gain to avoid a sack, and kneel-downs at the end of a half or game count as negative yards. The line is set at 9.5 because it’s a common number for quarterback rushing props. For Stafford, getting there would take a scramble that doesn’t fit how he plays.
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Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-124)
Allen has scored in every game this season. He has seven total touchdowns through four games and six touchdowns on nine red-zone carries, which makes him Buffalo’s goal-line option. He’s had at least five carries in every game, and he’s run for 12 or more touchdowns in each of his last three full seasons. His last trip to SoFi in 2024 produced six total touchdowns in a 44-42 loss. The Rams’ defense ranks third in EPA per play allowed, but Allen doesn’t need long drives to score. He needs one trip inside the 10.
Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown (-170)
Williams gets the scoring chances. He scored twice against the Eagles last week, and the Rams want to run against a Bills defense that ranks 30th in success rate. Williams averages 13.5 carries per game, and Blake Corum takes about 38% of the backfield work, so Williams’ yardage won’t be huge. But Los Angeles goes to him near the goal line, and as a 3.5-point home favorite the Rams should get several red-zone trips. At -170, you’re paying for a likely outcome, and the matchup supports it.
Long Shot: Matthew Stafford Anytime TD (+1700)
This is a lottery ticket. Stafford almost never runs, but the Rams will use a quarterback sneak at the goal line, and at 17/1 one short-yardage play inside the 1 is all it takes. Keep the stake small.
The Picks:
- Puka Nacua Over 90 Receiving Yards (-140)
- Matthew Stafford Under 9.5 Rushing Yards
- Josh Allen Anytime TD (-124)
- Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-170)
- Long shot: Matthew Stafford Anytime TD (+1700)
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