Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 11, 2026
8:20 PM ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium (SNF)
Atlanta is a 3-point home favorite over Baltimore with a total of 43.5. My play is the Under.
Lamar Jackson’s ankle changed this game. Jackson is out, and Tyler Huntley will make his first start of the season. The market has moved hard because of it. Baltimore was a 6-point favorite on the lookahead line, and now Atlanta is laying 3 to 3.5. The Ravens’ offense without Jackson is a different operation, and we saw it last week. After Jackson got hurt against Tennessee, Baltimore didn’t score a point in the second half with Huntley under center.
Baltimore’s track record without Jackson is thin. The Ravens are 6-11 straight up all-time when Jackson doesn’t play, and they went 2-2 without him last season. Huntley can manage a game, but he doesn’t extend plays or create explosive gains the way Jackson does. Jesse Minter’s offense will lean on Derrick Henry and try to shorten the game, and that means fewer possessions for both teams.
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Atlanta wants to grind too. Bijan Robinson has been unstoppable, with 494 rushing yards at 5.8 yards per carry and five total touchdowns through four games. He has 339 rushing yards and four touchdowns over his last two games alone. Raheem Morris knows that against a Ravens team with a backup quarterback, the formula is to feed Robinson, control the clock and let Michael Penix Jr. pick his spots. A run-heavy home favorite against a run-heavy road offense is a game that moves fast and keeps the score down.
The risk is Atlanta’s offense getting loose. The Falcons hung 45 points on New Orleans on Monday night, and Robinson is the kind of back who can break a game open with one carry. Baltimore’s defense is also banged up, with Trey Hendrickson and Marlon Humphrey questionable. If the Falcons get to 30, the Over comes into play even with a weak Ravens offense. But Baltimore’s offense managed zero points in the second half last week with Huntley, and the Falcons don’t need to throw it around to win. A 24-13 type of game is the most likely outcome, and that stays under 43.5.
The Pick: Under 43.5
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