RBD’s MT model is working the Under fade at a 78% clip. This week it points to two Overs — Northern Illinois at Wyoming and San Jose State at UTEP.
Northern Illinois vs Wyoming
College Football Prediction and Pick
My new model MT has an overall record of 4-11 Ov/Un.
Overs are just 0-1 but Unders give me a very usable Fade at 3-11.
That’s a very attractive 78%!
(As always, sorry about the stupid name, MT, but I have to label it something in order to track it in my charts and write about it.)
I used this play last week, Fading the Under and taking Maryland/Ohio State Over 56.
The game landed on 61 for a W.
And I used it the week before with Toledo/Ball State, Fading the Under and taking Over 54.
This was the first week I used the play after noticing in my latest charts that it had a record of 3-9. I didn’t make the best buy on the game as the total dropped to 53, but it didn’t matter as they combined for 63.
After those two wins the record now stands at 3-11. And I have two games that qualify this week, Northern Illinois at Wyoming and San Jose State at UTEP.
The Wyoming game starts at 3:30 pm EST.
The UTEP game kicks off at 9:00 p.m. EST.
This gives me a spot I always like to take advantage of. I can play the morning game first and know the results before I have to make a decision on playing the second spot or not.
If the early game hits I can call it a day and bank a sure unit. If the early game loses I can go with the odds that a 78% play is more likely to go 1-1 than 0-2.
Being that San Jose State has already been in this spot once and the Fade was a winner I’ll likely play it, regardless of the score of the early game.
Back in Week One San Jose State faced USC.
The total was 61′.
MT said the game would stay Under, by 16 points!
The final score saw 68 points scored for a winner on the Fade.
So looking at Team Specific numbers, San Jose State has been in this spot once and the Under is 0-1.
But there’s a bit of a drawback to that stat.
USC held San Jose State to just three points in the first three quarters. Then they put their scrubs in and San Jose State scored 23 points in Q4. But the Trojans were big Favs in that one at -37 so it was expected that they would be far ahead late in the game and would pull their starters. That won’t be the case this week as the Spartans are -7′ Favs, so UTEP won’t be pulling their starters.
All four teams playing in this week’s spots have records that lean to the Under.
Northern Illinois and Wyoming are combined 3-8 Ov/Un, 72%.
San Jose State/UTEP are 4-8, 67%.
But most of those games came in at numbers higher than this week’s total.
The Northern Illinois/Wyoming Game opened at 38′ and is now at 40.
All six of Northern Illinois’s games opened higher than 40, three of them by double digits or more.
Five of Wyoming’s six games have opened higher than 40.
Because the number is climbing I bought it this morning.
The San Jose State/UTEP the game opened at 52′ and has dropped to 46′.
Five of San Jose State’s six games have had totals higher than 46 and all six of UTEP’s games had higher totals.
Because of the 4-8 Ov/Un record for these teams the books are starting to drop the numbers on their totals. Despite this the public are still betting on the Under, leading to the six-point drop.
This means there’s a huge buyback potential for early bettors looking for a middle at a whopping six points, so no doubt this line is going to go higher before kickoff.
Waiting until game day to buy it would be a mistake. Despite my desire to play the early game first and then wait to see the results before making a decision on the late game, I’m going to monitor this game and if I see it start to climb I’m going to grab the current number.
UTEP starting quarterback EJ Colson is listed as questionable with a concussion.
If he’s out, the start will likely go to last week’s fill-in starter, Raymond Moore.
In that game against Nevada, Moore completed 16 of 26 for 132 yards, two TD’s, no INT’s.
With one start under his belt we should see some improvement this week.
My plays:
N Illinois/Wyoming Ov 40
San Jose State/UTEP (wait to buy)
Record: 11-11
