No. 4 Ohio State at No. 5 Indiana
Saturday, October 17, 2026
12:00 PM ET, Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
Ohio State is a 3.5-point road favorite at Indiana, and the total sits at 51.5. My play is Indiana +3.5.
Picture noon in Bloomington, with a crowd Curt Cignetti flatly says “we’re going to need” for what Hoosier State of Mind calls “arguably the biggest game in Memorial Stadium history.” Indiana is the defending national champion, unbeaten, and riding a 22-game winning streak that sits one short of the CFP-era record. Who owns that record? Ohio State, the same program Indiana beat 13-10 in last December’s Big Ten title game. Both are unbeaten in league play, so the Big Ten race runs through this one. I’ll take the team getting points.
Three and a half points for a coin flip? I’ll take that deal
Start with the price, because it’s the whole bet. ESPN’s FPI makes Ohio State less than a point better, basically a coin flip. Bill Connelly’s SP+ has the Buckeyes first in the country and the Hoosiers fifth, separated by under three points before Indiana gets a thing for home field. That’s a pick’em wearing a 3.5 costume.
So why the extra hook? Because everybody wants the Buckeyes. Roughly four of every five spread tickets are on Ohio State, and the big money leans the same way. But watch the moneyline. Even with the crowd piling on the Buckeyes there too, Indiana has shortened from +160 to +150. When a price moves against the public, somebody with weight is on the other side.
And yes, Indiana is 1-5 against the spread, but every miss came while laying anywhere from 9.5 to 57 points. This is the first time all season the Hoosiers are getting any.
Ohio State’s right side is still under construction, and Indiana’s edge rushers have the blueprints
Last December, Indiana sacked Julian Sayin five times and held Ohio State to 58 rushing yards. Ryan Day says none of that matters this year. Indiana’s front didn’t get the memo. It leads the Big Ten in both sacks and tackles for loss, and Stephen Daley and Tobi Osunsanmi have five sacks apiece.
Now look at who’s blocking them. Right tackle Phillip Daniels is expected back after missing a month (“I think we can get Phil back… That’s the plan,” Day said), which is a lot of rust to knock off against this front. Austin Siereveld is day-to-day with an illness, so the right side may still be patched together. Day called Indiana’s defensive line “one of the biggest challenges we’ll have all season,” and a line that ranks 75th nationally in sacks allowed has every reason to sweat.
Running won’t be easy, either. Indiana allows just 2.6 yards per carry. If the Buckeyes can’t run, Sayin has to sit in the pocket and wait on Jeremiah Smith, which is exactly the game Indiana wants.
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Josh Hoover won’t hand you the game, and that’s gold for an underdog
Indiana’s offense doesn’t get the Heisman buzz, but it might be the best in this game. The Hoosiers lead the country at 7.6 yards per play and squeeze more value out of each snap than almost anyone. Turbo Richard is ripping off 8.4 yards a carry, Josh Hoover has been surgical, and Indiana has barely turned it over, about one giveaway all season. Dogs that don’t give away possessions hang around.
Discipline matters too. Indiana averages 3.3 penalties a game to Ohio State’s 6.7, and Day was fuming about flags even after a 29-point win over Maryland. In a loud building, that matters.
How Jeremiah Smith wrecks my Saturday
Smith already has 11 touchdown catches, and Cignetti didn’t sugarcoat it: “He’s a freak. We’re going to have to do a great job on him.” SI points out that Ohio State ranks second in the nation in EPA per pass, meaning almost nobody gets more out of each throw, while Indiana ranks 76th at stopping the pass by that same measure. Corner A.J. Harris just returned from a long absence, and Cignetti admitted “there are some things to clean up.” If Sayin gets clean pockets, Smith can cover this number by himself.
Day also expects most of the starters who sat against Maryland to be back. Ohio State’s defense allows a nation-best 4.8 yards per pass, and Indiana went 1-for-10 on third down at Nebraska just last week. CollegeFootballRatings even projects Ohio State to cover. And the Buckeyes have a bye next, while Indiana has to go to Michigan.
Still, this smells like another last-possession game, just like last December’s slugfest in Indianapolis. Smith gets his yards, Indiana’s front gets home a few times, and nobody pulls away. Ohio State might be slightly better. It isn’t more than a field goal better in Bloomington.
Projected score: Ohio State 24, Indiana 21.
The Pick: Indiana +3.5
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