Arizona State at No. 10 Texas Tech
Saturday, October 17, 2026
3:30 PM ET, Galaxy Stadium, Lubbock, Texas
Texas Tech is a 14.5-point favorite over Arizona State, and the total is 48.5. My play is Texas Tech -14.5.
Last October in Tempe, Texas Tech was 6-0 when Raleek Brown scored with 34 seconds left, and Will Hammond’s Hail Mary on the final play got swatted down. Arizona State won 26-22. It was the Red Raiders’ only regular-season loss in a year that ended with a Big 12 title and a playoff trip. It was also Hammond’s first loss as a starter, back when he was filling in for an injured Behren Morton.
Joey McGuire hasn’t let it go. “I do feel like our coaching staff definitely will have a chip on our shoulder as far as coming into this game. Quite frankly, I told them, and I believe this, I thought they (Arizona State) outcoached us last year in winning that game.” Coaches don’t usually say that about the other sideline unless they want their own staff to stew on it for a while.
Now Hammond is the starter, Tech is 5-0 for the second year in a row (a first in school history), it’s coming off a bye, and Galaxy Stadium is sold out for Homecoming. The Red Raiders have won 11 straight at home and have flattened Big 12 opponents in eight straight games. Arizona State picked a rough week to come to Lubbock.
Tech’s defense is about to make Cutter Boley’s afternoon very long. The Red Raiders rank top-15 on defense in both SP+ and gameonpaper’s opponent-adjusted efficiency numbers, which means they win the ordinary snap and leave offenses behind schedule. They’re especially mean against the run. Arizona State’s offense ranks 106th in that same efficiency measure, and its passing game is the weakest part of it.
Then there’s third down, where the Sun Devils convert fewer than 30 percent of the time, 128th in the country. McGuire’s plan fits on a napkin: “We need to hit their quarterback. They’re going to throw the football.” Tech has forced seven turnovers in its last two games alone, and opponents who do cross the Tech 40 have averaged just 2.3 points per trip. Teams that can’t move the chains don’t erase two-touchdown gaps against that.
Arizona State’s season looks like a travel itinerary with no plan. Tempe, then a 48-20 loss at Texas A&M after a fourth-quarter collapse, then a win over Kansas in London, then two weeks off. After that break, Baylor came to town and won 55-19, ASU’s worst loss since joining the Big 12. A win over Hawaii followed, and it still didn’t cover. Kenny Dillingham isn’t sugarcoating any of it: “the biggest thing for me right now is we just got to play harder. We’ve got to be felt when we’re on the field, and that’s not what we are right now.” Remember the A&M game: ASU was a two-touchdown road dog there, the same role it has this week, and it lost by 28.
Tech has a clear pattern, too. The Red Raiders are only +7 in first quarters this year and +72 after halftime, third-best in the nation. Four of their five wins were one-possession games at the break. That’s what a -14.5 cover looks like for this team: a tight first half, then a defense that wears you down.
The market sees it. This line opened at 12.5 and has climbed to 14.5 everywhere, and it still sits below the models. SP+ makes Tech 18 points better on a neutral field before home field gets added, and Action Network projects Tech -18.5.
How Arizona State steals the cover. Hammond has as many interceptions as touchdown passes, five apiece, and McGuire spent the bye telling him to “take what they’re giving you.” McGuire also admitted “the negative is our self-inflicted wounds in the first half.” A pick or two that hands ASU a short field could keep this inside the number deep into the fourth quarter.
Tech is also without running back Cam Dickey (ankle), so J’Koby Williams and Quinten Joyner carry the load with freshman Ace Rowden in the mix. ASU gets starting center Tana Alo-Tupuola and right guard Wade Helton back, and Tech’s pass defense is a genuine liability, 127th in yards allowed. If Boley has time, Reed Harris and his seven touchdown catches can make this uncomfortable. And Tech hasn’t been automatic against the number, going 2-3 ATS, including a two-point escape against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite.
That’s a risk worth eating. I expect this to feel close at halftime and be decided in the fourth quarter: Texas Tech 31, Arizona State 14. I’d play it up to -16.5. One more item for the rivalry file: in each of the last two seasons, the team that lost this game went on to win the Big 12. McGuire would rather not test that theory again.
The Pick: Texas Tech -14.5
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