Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Thursday, October 22, 2026
9:30 PM ET, Paycom Center
The Thunder are 8.5-point favorites over the Nuggets with the total at 235.5. My play is the Nuggets +8.5 (-110).
Oklahoma City is the best team in basketball until somebody proves otherwise. I’m here to argue that 8.5 points is a lot to lay against the best offense in the league, run by a guy who has averaged a triple-double over the last two seasons.
The Thunder look like the Thunder again
OKC’s opener was a statement. The team that knocked it out of last season’s Western Conference finals in seven games, San Antonio, got punched in the mouth on its own floor. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 32 and stretched his record run of 20-point games to 141. Jared McCain came off the bench and caught fire from deep. Victor Wembanyama made one field goal all night. There was a body slam, a scrum and four technicals. Fun stuff.
So yes, Oklahoma City is still a monster. Last season it won 64 games and owned the league’s stingiest defense, allowing 107.7 points per 100 possessions per Basketball Reference, two full points better than anyone else. That’s the number that should scare a Denver backer.
Denver’s offense is built for exactly this fight
Here’s the thing about the Thunder defense: a big chunk of its power comes from turning you over. OKC forced turnovers on 14.6% of opponent possessions last season, second-most in the league, and it led the NBA in points off turnovers. Teams that cough it up against Oklahoma City get buried in a hurry.
Denver doesn’t cough it up. The Nuggets had the third-lowest turnover rate in the league last season and the NBA’s best offense, scoring 122.6 points per 100 possessions. Take away the live-ball mistakes and OKC has to beat you in the half court, where nobody has an easy time with Jokic.
And the big fella is still the big fella. He put up 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists a night last season, while Jamal Murray had the best year of his career, making All-NBA and drilling 43.5% from deep.
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Lu Dort is gone, and Denver noticed
For years, Luguentz Dort was the guy OKC sent to make Murray’s night miserable. Dort got traded to Atlanta this summer. Cason Wallace, fresh off a five-year, $139 million extension, takes his spot in the starting lineup, and he’s a pest in his own right: second-team All-Defense, and the league leader in total steals last season. But he’s a different matchup than Dort, and Nuggets coach David Adelman sounds curious.
“Lu Dort’s not there anymore,” Adelman said. “Obviously they have a lot of very, very capable defenders, so I’m interested to see how they see us.”
Denver also returns the starting five of Jokic, Murray, Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson and Christian Braun, a group that outscored opponents by 13.5 points per 100 possessions last season, third-best among starting lineups. Four of those five missed at least a month with injuries a year ago. Healthy, they’re a problem for anyone.
These two don’t do blowouts
Look at last season’s meetings when both teams played their stars. OKC won by 10 in Denver, by six in overtime at home, and by three at home in March in a game where Jokic dropped 32. Two of those three finishes land comfortably inside this number. (The fourth meeting, a 127-107 Denver win in April, was a rest-day affair with neither team’s stars in uniform.)
The market is telling an interesting story, too. This line opened at 7.5 and climbed to 8.5 even though about two-thirds of spread tickets are on Denver. That usually means bigger money likes OKC, so I’m not pretending this is a free square. I’m saying the extra point makes Denver more attractive, not less.
Why I could be wrong
This is Denver’s first real game, on the road, against a team that already has one under its belt. The Nuggets have a bunch of new bench pieces, including DeMar DeRozan and Marvin Bagley III, who have yet to play a regular-season game in a Denver uniform. Julian Strawther is out with a knee sprain, and Spencer Jones is questionable with a hamstring issue. Denver’s defense ranked 21st last season and forced turnovers less often than anyone, so if the Thunder get hot from three like they did in San Antonio, this can get out of hand by the third quarter. And if Chet Holmgren plays like he did against Wembanyama, Jokic will have to earn every bucket.
Projected score
I see OKC controlling most of the night and Denver hanging around behind Jokic and Murray, with the Nuggets landing a few late punches to keep the margin honest. Thunder 118, Nuggets 113.
The Pick: Nuggets +8.5 (-110)
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