Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
10:00 PM ET, Crypto.com Arena
The Lakers are 6.5-point favorites over the Warriors, and the total is 234.5. My play is Under 234.5.
Count the names Golden State won’t have on Wednesday night: Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody. That’s four rotation players who combined for more than 60 points a night last season, and none of them suiting up. Then go look at the Lakers’ bench and try to name the second unit without checking a roster. That’s the game. One team is missing a huge chunk of its offense. The other is still learning where everybody likes the ball.
The Warriors are running this one on fumes
Butler is still recovering from ACL surgery, and Moody from a repaired patellar tendon. Neither is expected back before January. Porzingis is listed as “not with team” after missing all of preseason with a health issue, and Podziemski was ruled out with a sore lower back. He’s the guy who played all 82 games last year. Stephen Curry is probable after tweaking his right ankle at Sunday’s open practice. Steve Kerr says he’ll be fine, but this is a 38-year-old in his 18th season who played only 43 games last year.
That leaves Golden State asking 36-year-old Draymond Green to play center, with 40-year-old Al Horford and rookie Yaxel Lendeborg filling in around him. Kerr is at peace with it. “It’s different now that we have Yaxel,” he said this week. “We don’t feel so small if Draymond’s the five this year, with Yaxel next to him.”
Maybe so, but this offense ranked just 18th in efficiency last season with Butler and Porzingis available for chunks of it. It also limped to the finish, losing seven of its last eight and going 15-26 on the road. Lendeborg was terrific in the preseason, leading the team at 15.6 points a game. Still, a rookie and a sore-ankled Curry carrying the scoring on the road is not a recipe for 120.
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Nine new Lakers, one ball, and Luka holding it
Los Angeles goes into its first season since 2017-18 without LeBron James, and with nine new players around Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. JJ Redick knows three of his starters: Doncic, Reaves and new center Walker Kessler. He’s still sorting out the other two. Reaves didn’t sugarcoat where things stand: “There’s going to be some growing pains, just lack of reps together so far.”
Those growing pains showed up in October. The Lakers went 2-3 in preseason, and the two losses to Golden State weren’t close, 124-98 and 101-89. They also finished second-to-last in preseason rebounding. Doncic is the reigning scoring champ at 33.5 points a night, and he can wreck any total by himself. But last season’s Lakers ranked 22nd in pace. They score efficiently, but they don’t run.
The market agrees with me, too. This total opened at 235.5, and it’s already down to 233.5 at FanDuel, BetMGM and bet365. DraftKings is hanging on at 234.5, and that extra point is the one I want.
How the Over cashes anyway
Golden State was an Over machine last season, cashing 58.3% of the time, and it fired threes more often than any team in the league. If Curry’s ankle feels fine and he gets hot, he can drag this game into the 230s on his own. The Lakers’ defense ranked just 19th last season, and Doncic is capable of 40 on any night. Opening-night defenses aren’t sharp either. Expect some blown rotations on both ends.
The scoreboard I see: Lakers 115, Warriors 108. Doncic gets his, Kessler eats on the glass, and a short-handed Golden State bench runs out of answers around the 7-minute mark of the fourth. That’s 223 points, and it stays well clear of the number.
The Pick: Under 234.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
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