Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
8:30 PM ET, Toyota Center
Houston is an 8.5-point favorite at most books (9.5 at DraftKings), and the total sits at 230.5. My play is Under 230.5 (-108) at BetRivers.
Kyrie Irving’s first real game in more than 19 months. Cooper Flagg’s first next to him. Kevin Durant, Fred VanVleet and a Rockets team that’s finally whole. It’s a great show, and the market priced it like a shootout. I’m betting it plays like a Houston game.
This number opened at 227.5 and got bet up three points. Nothing about these two teams says that’s right. Houston played at the second-slowest pace in the league last season and finished sixth in defensive efficiency, which means fewer possessions and tougher looks on every one of them. The Rockets went 34-7 when they held opponents under 45% shooting.
Their four meetings last season landed at 212, 231, 214 and 218 total points. Only one of them topped 230, and it barely did.
Dallas is walking into a rebounding buzzsaw
The Mavericks ranked 27th in offensive efficiency last season, and they open this one thin up front. Dereck Lively II (foot), Santi Aldama (knee) and Caleb Martin (thumb) are all out, and Dwight Powell was waived Monday. That leaves Daniel Gafford, Moussa Cisse and rookie Morez Johnson Jr. to hold up against the best offensive rebounding team in the league. Houston grabbed nearly 35% of its own misses last season. Those second chances eat clock as much as they add points.
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First-year coach Dusty May knows defenses will load up on his two stars. “We have to be creative with teams obviously keying on those guys so much,” he said. Irving was just as candid: “The gravity is going to be on us.” Against a Rockets defense that’s long at every spot, that usually means a lot of late-clock jumpers.
Ime Udoka finally has his full group, with VanVleet back from a torn ACL and Steven Adams back from ankle surgery, although Adams is questionable tonight with calf tightness. “We can now hit the ground running as opposed to figuring it out on the fly,” Udoka said. With VanVleet, Durant and Alperen Sengun running the offense, this team doesn’t need to play fast to score. It just needs to keep the ball moving and pound the glass.
The preseason told the story. With VanVleet and Sengun on the floor in Macao, Houston beat Dallas 135-117. Two days later, with Durant, Sengun and VanVleet all sitting, Dallas won 132-115. Don’t read anything into that second score.
Now, the case for the Over, because it isn’t nothing. Houston hit 16.3 threes per game in the preseason after ranking 25th in makes last season. If that shooting is real, the Rockets could clear 120 on their own. Dallas also played at the fifth-fastest pace in the league last season, and Irving went 5-of-7 from deep in his last tune-up. A blowout could also bring garbage time, when the benches start trading baskets. I’d still play this Under at 229.5, call it a lean at 229, and pass at 228.5 or lower.
Projected score: Rockets 118, Mavericks 105. Houston turns the glass into a weapon, Flagg and Irving get theirs, and the night finishes 223 total points, with room to spare under the number.
The Pick: Under 230.5 (-108 at BetRivers)
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