Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Tuesday, October 27, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Tropicana Field
The Brewers are around -138 on the road with the Rays at about +115, and the total sits at 7 to 7.5. My play is Brewers moneyline (-138).
Robin Yount never got to see it, and neither did Bob Uecker. Milwaukee is one win away from the first World Series title in franchise history, and after what happened at the Trop on Monday night, I don’t see the team on the brink having the answers.
Game 3 wasn’t a loss for Tampa Bay, it was an eviction
The first two games were coin flips: 3-2 and 5-4, both tipped by a fielding error or a baserunning slip at the worst possible moment. Game 3 was a different story. Milwaukee won 10-1, and the fifth inning was ugly: eight runs, all with two outs, a World Series record. Seven straight hits, not one of them a home run. That’s no lucky swing. That’s a lineup putting together one tough at-bat after another until the other team broke.
The series numbers back up what the eyes saw. Milwaukee is hitting .327 as a team through three games. Jackson Chourio is 8-for-14 with three steals. William Contreras is hitting .538 and has thrown out three base stealers. Tampa Bay is batting .187 with 24 strikeouts and seven runs total, and it managed three hits on Monday. Robert Gasser gave up one hit in six scoreless innings, a leadoff single to Yandy Díaz in the first.
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No named starter? The Brewers don’t need one
Milwaukee hadn’t announced a Game 4 starter as of Tuesday morning. The plan apparently involved Brandon Woodruff, but he ended up pitching the ninth inning of Game 3 in his first big-league outing since July 4, so that’s off. Dustin May, Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan are all possibilities, or Pat Murphy could start one of his late-inning arms and treat this as a bullpen game.
Whoever starts, the important thing is who comes after him. The blowout gave Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill the night off. Ashby still hasn’t allowed a run this October. All three are fully rested for a game where Milwaukee only has to hold a lead for a few innings. Brewers relievers have allowed two earned runs in 13 innings in this series, and Rays relievers have given up eight in 11 2/3.
Griffin Jax has a hot finish to his season and a tough assignment
I’m not knocking Jax. He was excellent down the stretch, allowing one run in 18 innings over his last four regular-season starts with 15 strikeouts. His season ERA is 3.53, though Statcast’s expected ERA, which measures how hard hitters squared him up, puts him around 4.27. He hasn’t gone deeper than five innings since July. His October has been bumpy too: four earned runs in six innings across two appearances, including three runs in four innings at Cleveland in the ALCS.
So Kevin Cash will have a quick hook, and this Brewers lineup will get into a Rays bullpen that has struggled all series. Closer Bryan Baker hasn’t pitched in the World Series and will probably be used early if the game is close. Nick Martinez could give some length. Using that many arms in one game works only if the offense finally scores, and Tampa Bay’s offense has shown nothing so far.
The case for the Rays (and against me)
Teams facing elimination at home don’t just roll over. Tampa Bay was the AL’s No. 1 seed, swept the Yankees, came back from 2-1 down to beat Cleveland, and won 55 games at the Trop this year. A bullpen game has no margin for error, either. If Milwaukee’s opener walks two guys in the first inning, the Rays’ all-hands approach suddenly looks smart. And baseball has a long history of the team in control suddenly going flat once it can smell the finish line. History still says the Rays are in trouble: teams up 3-0 in a best-of-seven have won 42 of 43 series. Still, a single game is closer to a coin flip than that, which is why I’d stop at about -150. Beyond that, the Brewers run line at plus money is the better price.
Projected score: Brewers 5, Rays 2
The Pick: Brewers ML (-138)
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