Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 1, 2026
1:00 PM ET, EverBank Stadium
The Jaguars are 9.5-point favorites with a total of 46.5. My play is Jaguars -9.5 (-108).
On Tuesday the Colts traded Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner. On Sunday they get to go play the rested AFC South leaders. Good luck with that.
This is a fire sale, not a tune-up. Indianapolis fired general manager Chris Ballard earlier this month, then shipped Nelson to Seattle for a 2027 third-round pick and a 2028 fifth, and sent Buckner to San Francisco for a 2027 fourth. That’s the best guard in the building and a defensive tackle with four sacks this season, gone in one afternoon, from a team that has lost three straight. The last of those was a 16-10 loss at Minnesota where Daniel Jones went 13-of-22 for 108 yards, took four sacks and threw a game-sealing interception. Shane Steichen says he has “a ton of faith in” Jones, who has four touchdown passes and seven picks. The numbers don’t share that faith: Indy’s passing game ranks 29th in efficiency per throw.
Trevor Lawrence, meanwhile, is cooking. Jacksonville’s offense ranks third in the NFL in EPA per play, and the passing game is second. Lawrence has 14 touchdown passes against four interceptions, and he threw for 331 yards against Philadelphia and 306 with four scores against Houston in back-to-back games in London. The Jaguars haven’t lost a fumble all season. In their two true home games, they’ve scored 34 and 35.
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Indy’s best idea runs straight into Jacksonville’s best unit. The Colts’ answer to a shaky passing game is Jonathan Taylor, who has 587 yards and eight touchdowns. Problem: Jacksonville allows 72.2 rushing yards per game, fewest in the league, and ranks second in run defense by EPA. Flip it around and it gets worse for Indy. The Colts rank 28th against the run by EPA and give up 5.0 yards per carry, and now they’re doing it without Buckner in the middle. Expect Liam Coen to lean on the ground game early and let Lawrence pick his spots.
Rest matters here, too. Jacksonville played two straight games in London and then had the Week 7 bye, so it comes in with 14 days off. Indianapolis is on a normal week that included a front-office shakeup and two trades of longtime cornerstones. One locker room got to exhale. The other is checking its phone.
Why I could be wrong. Nine and a half is a lot of points, and this line has already moved several points toward Jacksonville since it opened, so some of the value is gone. Jacksonville’s pass defense is the soft spot, ranking 25th in success rate allowed against the pass, which is how Jones could hang around. Tyler Warren and Sauce Gardner were listed as questionable and could return, and the Jags will be without right tackle Anton Harrison (IR). The forecast also calls for gusts around 21 mph and a 55% chance of rain, the kind of weather that shortens games and invites a late backdoor cover.
Projected score: Jaguars 30, Colts 16. I’m comfortable laying it through -10. At -10.5 or higher, I’d step aside.
The Pick: Jaguars -9.5
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