Ohio State at USC
Saturday, October 31, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
Ohio State is a 6.5-point road favorite at USC with a total of 51.5. My play is USC +6.5.
How much is a Heisman finalist worth? More than this market thinks. Julian Sayin went down at Indiana, Ryan Day says he’s likely done for the season, and Ohio State is still laying nearly a touchdown on the road with a quarterback who has never started a college game. I’ll take that deal from the other side.
Nobody knows who’s playing quarterback, and that includes Ryan Day
Eleven days after losing Sayin, Day still hasn’t named a starter. Luke Fahey, a three-star freshman from Mission Viejo, was the first one off the bench at Indiana and went 0-for-2. Tavien St. Clair, the five-star sophomore, is in the mix too. Day is building packages for both, and he says it’s “definitely possible” both play. Two quarterbacks usually means zero quarterbacks, and Day sounds like he knows it: “The margin for error has certainly tightened up, there’s no question.”
Sayin had 2,007 yards, 19 touchdowns and four picks. He’s the reason this offense ranked in the top 10 in scoring and in staying ahead of the chains. Those numbers belong to him, not to whoever takes the first snap Saturday night. Jeremiah Smith is still the best receiver in the country, with 984 yards and 12 touchdowns, but a first-time starter in the Coliseum isn’t going to hit him the way Sayin did. Running back Ja’Kobi Jackson is out too, which thins a backfield that hasn’t been carrying this offense anyway.
Ohio State will lean on its defense, which is elite. It allows 13.4 points and 4.2 yards a play, both top five nationally. That’s exactly why I like the points. A great defense paired with a conservative offense is how you win 20-17. It’s not how you win by a touchdown-plus.
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USC’s offense had one terrible night, not a terrible season
Yes, Madison was a mess. USC scored seven points, the fewest ever by a Lincoln Riley team. Jayden Maiava got sacked five times and threw two picks, and the Trojans ran 25 times for minus-17 yards. “We had one explosive play,” Riley said. Ugly.
But one game doesn’t erase the other seven. For the season, USC is a top-10 offense by per-play efficiency and seventh in the country at staying on schedule. Maiava has thrown for more than 2,300 yards and 19 touchdowns. This is a team that put 31 on Penn State on the road three weeks ago. And the defense, the unit everyone loves to dunk on, held Wisconsin to 200 total yards and 58 passing yards. USC’s own turnovers and a punchless offense did the rest.
The stakes help, too. Riley is in year five with no playoff trip and no conference title, and he spent this week insisting, “This is where I want to be.” A prime-time home game against the No. 2 team in the country is his best chance to change the conversation. Expect USC’s best punch.
Why I could be wrong
Riley’s teams have a bad habit of folding in big games, and USC is 2-6 against the spread this season and 1-4 at home. Ohio State’s pass rush could do to Maiava exactly what Wisconsin did, and if USC’s line can’t hold up, this gets out of hand. The Buckeyes also had two weeks to build a game plan around their young quarterback, they’re 3-0 against the spread on the road, and St. Clair has five-star talent if Day lets him loose. One projection model still makes Ohio State a double-digit favorite. And USC’s defense gives up 15.3 points per second half, one of the worst marks in the country, so a late Buckeyes surge is very possible.
Nearly every bettor is on Ohio State, and the line has moved toward USC anyway. I’ll stand with the number. Take +7 if you can find it, play it at +6, and pass below that.
Projected score: Ohio State 23, USC 20. The Buckeyes defense keeps them in front, but a first-time starter can’t pull away in a hostile Coliseum.
The Pick: USC +6.5
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