Mississippi State at Texas
Saturday, October 31, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Texas is a 20.5-point favorite over Mississippi State, and the total is 50.5. My play is Under 50.5.
Mississippi State showed up in September with a Heisman-buzz quarterback and a 4-0 record. It shows up in Austin on Halloween with neither. Kamario Taylor is done for the year after toe surgery, the Bulldogs have lost three straight, and they’ve scored 38 points total in those three games. Now they get the country’s second-stingiest pass defense, in front of 100,000 people, with a backup quarterback.
Plenty of people will lay the three touchdowns with Texas. I’d rather bet that this game simply doesn’t have 51 points in it.
The Bulldogs’ offense left with Kamario Taylor
Taylor was the whole show: 17 touchdown passes, four picks, and a scheme Jeff Lebby built around his arm and his legs. Since the toe injury took hold, Mississippi State has posted 23 points against Alabama, a shutout at LSU and 15 against Oklahoma. That’s 12.7 points a game.
Lebby hasn’t named a starter. It’s freshman Parker “Billy” Puckett, who was steady but harmless against the Sooners (17-of-24 for 158 yards), or fifth-year transfer AJ Swann, who hasn’t taken a snap for the Bulldogs. Lebby likes Swann’s experience. “His maturity and his experience give him something that we don’t have in that room right now without Kamario,” he said Monday. That’s a coach looking for a guy who won’t give the game away, not one who’ll take it over.
And the protection is a mess. Over the last three games, State has been sacked on nearly 12% of its dropbacks, one of the worst rates in the country. Texas gets home almost three times a game.
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Texas wins ugly, and ugly is fine with me
This Texas defense is the real thing. It allows 4.2 yards per play, fourth-best in the country, and only 5.4 yards per pass attempt, second-best. Last week it picked off Trinidad Chambliss three times, including Jelani McDonald’s interception in the end zone on the final snap. And it did all of that without its best pass rusher, Colin Simmons, who’s still nursing a high-ankle sprain.
The Texas offense is the reason I’m not laying 20.5. Outside of the 59-point opener against Texas State, the Longhorns haven’t scored more than 34 in a game. By value gained per snap they sit 113th nationally. They’ve converted barely one in five third downs over their last three games. Against Ole Miss they led 24-3 at the half and then managed 19 yards in the third quarter. Now they’re breaking in a new left tackle, Andre Cojoe, after Trevor Goosby’s season-ending knee injury.
Steve Sarkisian spent Monday warning his team about “relief syndrome” after a huge win. Fair enough. But a Texas team that comes out sleepy, wins 27-10 and grinds the clock in the second half is a very realistic script. It’s also an Under ticket.
How this one goes Over
Mississippi State plays fast. Sarkisian said the Bulldogs snap it with around 27 seconds still left on the play clock, and more snaps means more chances at points. Their defense is also leaky, ranking near the bottom of the country in how often it lets opponents stay on schedule. If Arch Manning gets hot and Cam Coleman is healthy (he practiced without restrictions Monday after hurting his shoulder), Texas can get to 40 by itself. A defensive or special-teams touchdown, or garbage-time points against the Texas backups, could push this past the number too.
I’ll live with that. The total has already dropped from 52.5 to 50.5, and I’d still play it at 49. Below that it’s a lean.
Texas does its job, State finds a field goal and a late score, and nobody needs a calculator.
Projected score: Texas 30, Mississippi State 10
The Pick: Under 50.5
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