Auburn at Ole Miss
Saturday, October 31, 2026
12:45 PM ET, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Ole Miss is a 13.5-point favorite with the total at 57.5. My play is Auburn +13.5 (-112).
Two weeks ago Auburn walked into Athens and beat the No. 1 team in the country. Now the market wants two touchdowns to back it against an Ole Miss defense its own coach calls “very inconsistent.” I’ll take that deal.
The number ran too far. This line opened around Ole Miss -10.5 and has been pushed to -13.5. Some of that is the ugly 38-17 loss to LSU, where Byrum Brown completed 15 of 24 passes for 160 yards and got nowhere on the ground (19 carries, 21 yards). Fine. But one bad Saturday against a top-20 team, the third straight against a ranked opponent, shouldn’t cost a full field goal. This is the same Auburn team that beat Georgia 27-24 and lost to Florida by five.
The gap between these teams is smaller than the spread. Look at how well each team plays snap to snap, adjusted for schedule, and Ole Miss ranks 22nd while Auburn ranks 31st. That’s a real edge for the Rebels, but it’s a touchdown-ish edge with home field, not a two-score one. Ole Miss does win the down-to-down battle more often, but Auburn’s offense has been good enough to trade punches.
Pete Golding is worried about his own defense, and he should be. Ole Miss gives up 394 yards a game (108th nationally) and 161 on the ground (94th), and opponents convert 41% of third downs. After the 34-27 loss at Texas, where the Longhorns ran for 121 yards in the fourth quarter alone, Golding talked about a “come to Jesus” moment. Cornerback Edwin Joseph is doubtful. That’s not a unit I trust to keep pulling away for four quarters, and backdoor points count.
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The Rebels are missing their bell cow. Kewan Lacy dislocated the same shoulder again and is out, so the carries go to a committee of Makhi Frazier, Mills-Knight, Lindsey and Dye. That puts even more on Trinidad Chambliss, who has been good (1,926 yards, 16 touchdowns) but just threw three interceptions at Texas on 25-of-52 passing. Golding says you’ll see Chambliss run more. A quarterback taking extra hits a week before Georgia shows up isn’t nothing.
Look at the calendar. Ole Miss hosts No. 3 Georgia next Saturday in a game that could shape its playoff hopes. Auburn hosts Arkansas. One locker room has every reason to treat this like the main event. The other has a monster circled one week out.
Brown’s legs are the equalizer. Auburn’s quarterback has 108 career touchdowns, more than any other active FBS player, and he’s run for a score in five straight games. He gave Georgia fits with 115 rushing yards. Now he gets a run defense that ranks 94th nationally, and Auburn has gone two straight games without a turnover.
The case against me
Auburn’s pass protection is a disaster. The Tigers allow a sack on almost 12% of dropbacks, 132nd in the country, and they’ll be without offensive lineman Tai Buster, RB Nykahi Davenport and WR Erick Smith. If Brown is running for his life on third-and-long again, this gets out of hand quickly. Ole Miss also finishes drives as well as almost anyone: the Rebels score on 96% of red-zone trips, and Auburn’s defense lets opponents score on 95% of theirs, which ranks 128th. Oxford has been a fortress, too, with Ole Miss 3-0 at home. And Auburn is just 2-5 against the spread.
The saving grace is that Ole Miss doesn’t get after the quarterback much, with a sack rate around 85th nationally. If the Rebels can’t win at the line of scrimmage, Auburn hangs around.
Projected score: Ole Miss 31, Auburn 21
The Pick: Auburn +13.5
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