Bethune-Cookman at No. 19 Texas Tech
Thursday, November 5, 2026
9:00 PM ET, United Supermarkets Arena
Texas Tech is a 26.5-point favorite with the total sitting at 150.5 across the market, and my play is Under 150.5.
Jackson State scored 42 points in Lubbock on Monday. Forty-two. That’s the fewest Texas Tech has allowed in a season opener since it held Incarnate Word to 37 in 2018, and it wasn’t a fluke of cold shooting. The Red Raiders forced 24 turnovers, piled up 12 steals and held the Tigers to 29.2 percent from the floor.
McCasland finally built the defense people expected
When Grant McCasland came over from North Texas, everyone assumed he’d bring a slow, grinding, defense-first style. His first three Texas Tech teams did the opposite and ran up and down the floor. This group looks different. It’s switching one through four, keeping its gaps tight and jumping passing lanes like a team that practiced nothing else all fall.
Cruz Davis set the tone with a career-best six steals, one shy of the program record. McCasland said he’d challenged the team about guarding the ball in the middle of the floor, and Davis responded. Jackson State’s Daeshun Ruffin, a player of the year candidate in his league, finished with five points and five turnovers.
And the head coach thinks there’s more coming: “We’ve got the ability to turn people over with the way we compete defensively, especially as we get guys back.”
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Why 150 is too many points for this matchup
Texas Tech’s offense is fine, but it isn’t a flamethrower yet. The Red Raiders shot just 23.3 percent from three on Monday and still won by 34, because the defense handed them a 17-0 edge in fast-break points. Wyoming transfer Damarion Dennis scored a career-high 22 off the bench, and Josiah Moseley added 13 and eight boards. That’s a team that wins by smothering you, not by trading baskets.
Bethune-Cookman scored 70 in a 79-70 loss at Furman, with Mari Jordan doing the heavy lifting with 22 points. Now the Wildcats play a second straight road game against a far better defense. If Jordan gets the Ruffin treatment, where is the scoring supposed to come from?
The trend lines agree. Each of Texas Tech’s last four night games at United Supermarkets Arena against unranked teams finished with 148 points or fewer. Monday’s game ended with 118 points on the board.
The case for the over. Turnovers cut both ways. If Texas Tech keeps forcing them, it gets a lot of easy layups, and 24 takeaways that turn into a track meet could carry this past the number on their own. Bethune-Cookman’s last four games against AP-ranked opponents all went over 156 combined points, and the Red Raiders won the previous two meetings by 33 and 35. A garbage-time flurry from the benches can wreck an under in the final four minutes. With one game of data for each team, I’m trusting a small sample more than I’d like.
Projected score: Texas Tech 82, Bethune-Cookman 55.
The Pick: Under 150.5
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