Cal Poly at Arizona
Thursday, November 5, 2026
10:30 PM ET, McKale Center at ALKEME Arena
No. 5 Arizona is a 30.5-point favorite over Cal Poly with a total of 173.5 in most books. My play is Under 173.5.
“I feel like this could be a great catalyst for us,” Tommy Lloyd said after UCLA handed Arizona its first season-opening loss since 2006. Catalyst for what, exactly? Probably for a whole lot of yelling about defense in practice this week. Arizona hasn’t started 0-2 since 1982-83, the ill-fated Ben Lindsey season that ended with Arizona hiring Lute Olson. Nobody in that locker room wants to be the team that breaks that streak against a Big West opponent getting a $95,000 check to show up.
So yes, Arizona wins. The spread is a coin flip for me. The total is where I see a real mistake.
Everyone heard “fastest team in America” and hit the over
Here’s the Cal Poly pitch, and it’s a fun one. The Mustangs played at the fastest adjusted tempo in Division I last season, averaging 74 possessions a game. Their average trip down the floor lasted 14.5 seconds, second-shortest in the country. They shoot threes like they’re free, taking more than half their shots from deep, and they bring back 12 players from that team. Put that next to a Final Four program and the market went straight to “track meet.” This total opened at 168.5 and has climbed five full points since.
The problem is that pace is already baked in. Bart Torvik’s projection, which accounts for both teams’ speed, has this game at about 78 possessions. That’s a lot of trips. And it still spits out Arizona 98, Cal Poly 69. That’s 167 points, six and a half under this number. The extra possessions aren’t free points when one team can’t stop throwing the ball away and the other has one of the best defenses in the country.
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Fast doesn’t mean efficient
Cal Poly scored a lot last year, 82.1 points a game, but it got there by volume, not quality. The Mustangs shot just 33% from three on all those attempts and coughed it up on almost 20% of their trips, one of the worst marks in the country. In Monday’s opener they turned it over 25 times against a Division II team. Twenty-five. Now they walk into McKale against a defense Torvik ranks second nationally and a 7-foot-2 shot-blocker in Motiejus Krivas, who swatted six against UCLA. Those quick-trigger threes are going to turn into long rebounds and empty trips.
Arizona’s offense isn’t exactly humming, either. The Wildcats went 7-for-30 from three against UCLA, including 1-for-13 in the first half, and Ivan Kharchenkov had to carry them with 38 points. They’re also missing RJ Godfrey, who is still ineligible while his lawsuit plays out. Lloyd’s teams want balance, and right now his bench is a work in progress. That’s not a group I trust to drop 100 on its own.
How the over cashes anyway
If Cal Poly’s threes start falling, this thing gets loose in a hurry. The Mustangs gave up 85 points a game last season and let opponents shoot 55% inside the arc, which ranked 310th, so Arizona could score at will around the rim. Arizona also lived at the free-throw line during last year’s 36-win run, and a whistle-heavy game adds points without burning much clock. And if Lloyd empties the bench with a 35-point lead, sloppy garbage time can tack on a quick 10 at either end.
Projected score: Arizona 96, Cal Poly 70
The Pick: Under 173.5 (-112)
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