Toledo at No. 6 Michigan State
Thursday, November 5, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Breslin Center
Michigan State is a 26.5-point favorite at most books with a total around 152.5, and my play is Toledo +26.5.
Tom Izzo isn’t treating this like a tune-up. “We’ll have to play as good or better, I think, to win this game,” he said Tuesday, and then he added the part that matters for us: “This team (Toledo) can make a lot of shots.” When a Hall of Famer tells you his opponent can score, believe him, then go grab the points.
Monday was a clinic, and that’s why the number is fat. The Spartans opened by beating Quinnipiac 96-59 and shot 58 percent from the floor. Jeremy Fears Jr. ran the show with 13 points and 11 assists, and Anton Bonke picked up a double-double. It was the kind of night that makes the market drag a line to the moon for the next game. Toledo is not Quinnipiac, though. KenPom had the Rockets 141st nationally this week and Quinnipiac 278th. That’s a big step up in class with only two days of prep for Izzo’s group.
Tod Kowalczyk always shows up with a scoring team. The Rockets’ offense has rated higher than their defense on KenPom in all but one of Kowalczyk’s 17 seasons. Toledo was picked second in the MAC, and it reloaded through the portal with players who’ve been at Marquette, DePaul, Providence and Ohio State. Marquette transfer Sean Jones handed out nine assists in the opener. Mynor Strong scored 18, Jaylan Ouwinga posted 16 points and 14 rebounds, and Angel Montas Jr. added 16 and 10 off the bench.
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The loss at Arkansas State looks worse than it was. Toledo fell 71-70 on the road and shot just 6-of-27 from deep. Strong went 3-for-12 from three by himself. I’ll bet on that being a cold night, not a trend, for a program built to score. Even a normal night from outside turns this from a blowout into a game that sits in the low 20s, which is all we need.
History says the Spartans win big, but not this big. Michigan State hosted Toledo last December and won 92-69. That’s a 23-point margin, and the Rockets’ best player that night, Sonny Wilson, who scored 29, now plays at South Florida. So yes, Toledo lost its top scorer. It also brought in four high-major transfers, and three different Rockets scored 16 or more in the opener.
The case against me. Michigan State at home might just be a buzzsaw. Eight different Spartans scored at least nine points on Monday, so Izzo can keep rolling out fresh legs while Toledo’s starters wear down. If the Rockets cough it up and feed the Spartans’ transition game, 26.5 can disappear by halftime. And keep in mind this is only Game 2. Everyone’s ratings still lean heavily on preseason expectations, so nobody, me included, has a real read on either team yet. Jesse McCulloch is expected back from a minor concussion, which gives Michigan State one more big body.
Projected score: Michigan State 87, Toledo 66.
The Pick: Toledo +26.5
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